Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway
Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational a...
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2013
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00022940 2023-05-15T17:55:21+02:00 Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway Westermann, S. Schuler, T. V. Gisnås, K. Etzelmüller, B. 2013-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022940 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022895/tc-7-719-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/719/2013/tc-7-719-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022940 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022895/tc-7-719-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/719/2013/tc-7-719-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 2022-02-08T22:50:53Z Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Norway The Cryosphere 7 2 719 739 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Westermann, S. Schuler, T. V. Gisnås, K. Etzelmüller, B. Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Westermann, S. Schuler, T. V. Gisnås, K. Etzelmüller, B. |
author_facet |
Westermann, S. Schuler, T. V. Gisnås, K. Etzelmüller, B. |
author_sort |
Westermann, S. |
title |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_short |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_full |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_fullStr |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway |
title_sort |
transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in southern norway |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022940 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022895/tc-7-719-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/719/2013/tc-7-719-2013.pdf |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022940 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022895/tc-7-719-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/719/2013/tc-7-719-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-719-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
719 |
op_container_end_page |
739 |
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1766163275452514304 |