Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states
Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how wel...
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Copernicus Publications
2013
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00022373 2023-05-15T16:29:18+02:00 Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states Aschwanden, A. Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Khroulev, C. 2013-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022373 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022328/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1083/2013/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022373 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022328/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1083/2013/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 2022-02-08T22:51:10Z Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum) can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Greenland The Cryosphere 7 4 1083 1093 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Aschwanden, A. Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Khroulev, C. Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Validation is a critical component of model development, yet notoriously challenging in ice sheet modeling. Here we evaluate how an ice sheet system model responds to a given forcing. We show that hindcasting, i.e. forcing a model with known or closely estimated inputs for past events to see how well the output matches observations, is a viable method of assessing model performance. By simulating the recent past of Greenland, and comparing to observations of ice thickness, ice discharge, surface speeds, mass loss and surface elevation changes for validation, we find that the short term model response is strongly influenced by the initial state. We show that the thermal and dynamical states (i.e. the distribution of internal energy and momentum) can be misrepresented despite a good agreement with some observations, stressing the importance of using multiple observations. In particular we identify rates of change of spatially dense observations as preferred validation metrics. Hindcasting enables a qualitative assessment of model performance relative to observed rates of change. It thereby reduces the number of admissible initial states more rigorously than validation efforts that do not take advantage of observed rates of change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aschwanden, A. Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Khroulev, C. |
author_facet |
Aschwanden, A. Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. Khroulev, C. |
author_sort |
Aschwanden, A. |
title |
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
title_short |
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
title_full |
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
title_fullStr |
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
title_sort |
hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022373 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022328/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1083/2013/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00022373 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00022328/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1083/2013/tc-7-1083-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1083-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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7 |
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4 |
container_start_page |
1083 |
op_container_end_page |
1093 |
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