Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties
Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global a...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00021611 2023-05-15T18:32:33+02:00 Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties Mernild, S. H. Lipscomb, W. H. Bahr, D. B. Radić, V. Zemp, M. 2013-10 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021611 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021566/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1565/2013/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021611 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021566/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1565/2013/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 2022-02-08T22:51:34Z Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA The Cryosphere 7 5 1565 1577 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Mernild, S. H. Lipscomb, W. H. Bahr, D. B. Radić, V. Zemp, M. Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mernild, S. H. Lipscomb, W. H. Bahr, D. B. Radić, V. Zemp, M. |
author_facet |
Mernild, S. H. Lipscomb, W. H. Bahr, D. B. Radić, V. Zemp, M. |
author_sort |
Mernild, S. H. |
title |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_short |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_full |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
title_sort |
global glacier changes: a revised assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021611 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021566/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1565/2013/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021611 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021566/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/1565/2013/tc-7-1565-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1565-2013 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1565 |
op_container_end_page |
1577 |
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1766216699749597184 |