Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions a...
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2013
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00021178 2023-05-15T17:33:03+02:00 Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. 2013-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021178 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021133/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021178 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021133/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2013 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 2022-02-08T22:51:48Z We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Pacific Climate of the Past 9 6 2471 2487 |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_facet |
Bothe, O. Jungclaus, J. H. Zanchettin, D. |
author_sort |
Bothe, O. |
title |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_short |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble |
title_sort |
consistency of the multi-model cmip5/pmip3-past1000 ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021178 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021133/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00021178 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00021133/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/2471/2013/cp-9-2471-2013.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2471 |
op_container_end_page |
2487 |
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1766131411925860352 |