AnaWEGE: a weather generator based on analogues of atmospheric circulation

• Published in: Geoscientific Model Development
• Main Author: Yiou, P.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2014
• Subjects: article; Verlagsveröffentlichung; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-531-2014; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00020332; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00020287/gmd-7-531-2014.pdf; https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/7/531/2014/gmd-7-531-2014.pdf

This paper presents a stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation (AnaWEGE). Analogues of circulation have been a promising paradigm to analyse climate variability and its extremes. The weather generator uses precomputed analogues of sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic. The stochastic rules of the generator constrain the continuity in time of the simulations. The generator then simulates spatially coherent time series of a climate variable, drawn from meteorological observations. The weather generator is tested for European temperatures, and for winter and summer seasons. The biases in temperature quantiles and autocorrelation are rather small compared to observed variability. The ability of simulating extremely hot summers and cold winters is also assessed.