Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions
Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00016625 2023-05-15T16:02:56+02:00 Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions Krylenko, I. Motovilov, Yu. Antokhina, E. Zhuk, V. Surkova, G. 2015-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00016625 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00016580/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences -- https://www.proc-iahs.net/volumes.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2827925 -- 2199-899X https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00016625 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00016580/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2015 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 2022-02-08T22:54:04Z Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature. Article in Journal/Newspaper dvina Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 368 156 161 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Krylenko, I. Motovilov, Yu. Antokhina, E. Zhuk, V. Surkova, G. Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krylenko, I. Motovilov, Yu. Antokhina, E. Zhuk, V. Surkova, G. |
author_facet |
Krylenko, I. Motovilov, Yu. Antokhina, E. Zhuk, V. Surkova, G. |
author_sort |
Krylenko, I. |
title |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_short |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_full |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_fullStr |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_sort |
physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00016625 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00016580/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf |
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dvina |
genre_facet |
dvina |
op_relation |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences -- https://www.proc-iahs.net/volumes.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2827925 -- 2199-899X https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00016625 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00016580/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://piahs.copernicus.org/articles/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
container_volume |
368 |
container_start_page |
156 |
op_container_end_page |
161 |
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1766398596517724160 |