A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS
The Arctic is experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental and climate change. The active layer (the uppermost layer of soil between the atmosphere and permafrost that freezes in winter and thaws in summer) is sensitive to both climatic and environmental changes, and plays an important role i...
Published in: | ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2015
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00015925 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00015880/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf https://www.isprs-ann-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/II-4-W2/199/2015/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf |
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00015925 2023-05-15T13:02:42+02:00 A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS Touyz, J. Streletskiy, D. A. Nelson, F. E. Apanasovich, T. V. 2015-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00015925 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00015880/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf https://www.isprs-ann-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/II-4-W2/199/2015/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences -- ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences -- http://www.isprs.org/publications/annals.aspx -- 2194-9050 https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00015925 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00015880/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf https://www.isprs-ann-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/II-4-W2/199/2015/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2015 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 2022-02-08T22:54:23Z The Arctic is experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental and climate change. The active layer (the uppermost layer of soil between the atmosphere and permafrost that freezes in winter and thaws in summer) is sensitive to both climatic and environmental changes, and plays an important role in the functioning, planning, and economic activities of Arctic human and natural ecosystems. This study develops a methodology for modeling and estimating spatial-temporal variations in active layer thickness (ALT) using data from several sites of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring network, and demonstrates its use in spatial-temporal interpolation. The simplest model’s stochastic component exhibits no spatial or spatio-temporal dependency and is referred to as the naïve model, against which we evaluate the performance of the other models, which assume that the stochastic component exhibits either spatial or spatio-temporal dependency. The methods used to fit the models are then discussed, along with point forecasting. We compare the predicted fit of the various models at key study sites located in the North Slope of Alaska and demonstrate the advantages of space-time models through a series of error statistics such as mean squared error, mean absolute and percent deviance from observed data. We find the difference in performance between the spatio-temporal and remaining models is significant for all three error statistics. The best stochastic spatio-temporal model increases predictive accuracy, compared to the naïve model, of 33.3%, 36.2% and 32.5% on average across the three error metrics at the key sites for a one-year hold out period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer monitoring Active layer thickness Arctic Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network Climate change north slope permafrost Alaska Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences II-4/W2 199 206 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Touyz, J. Streletskiy, D. A. Nelson, F. E. Apanasovich, T. V. A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
The Arctic is experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental and climate change. The active layer (the uppermost layer of soil between the atmosphere and permafrost that freezes in winter and thaws in summer) is sensitive to both climatic and environmental changes, and plays an important role in the functioning, planning, and economic activities of Arctic human and natural ecosystems. This study develops a methodology for modeling and estimating spatial-temporal variations in active layer thickness (ALT) using data from several sites of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring network, and demonstrates its use in spatial-temporal interpolation. The simplest model’s stochastic component exhibits no spatial or spatio-temporal dependency and is referred to as the naïve model, against which we evaluate the performance of the other models, which assume that the stochastic component exhibits either spatial or spatio-temporal dependency. The methods used to fit the models are then discussed, along with point forecasting. We compare the predicted fit of the various models at key study sites located in the North Slope of Alaska and demonstrate the advantages of space-time models through a series of error statistics such as mean squared error, mean absolute and percent deviance from observed data. We find the difference in performance between the spatio-temporal and remaining models is significant for all three error statistics. The best stochastic spatio-temporal model increases predictive accuracy, compared to the naïve model, of 33.3%, 36.2% and 32.5% on average across the three error metrics at the key sites for a one-year hold out period. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Touyz, J. Streletskiy, D. A. Nelson, F. E. Apanasovich, T. V. |
author_facet |
Touyz, J. Streletskiy, D. A. Nelson, F. E. Apanasovich, T. V. |
author_sort |
Touyz, J. |
title |
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
title_short |
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
title_full |
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
title_fullStr |
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
title_full_unstemmed |
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL FRAMEWORK FOR MODELING ACTIVE LAYER THICKNESS |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal framework for modeling active layer thickness |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00015925 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00015880/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf https://www.isprs-ann-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/II-4-W2/199/2015/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Active layer monitoring Active layer thickness Arctic Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network Climate change north slope permafrost Alaska |
genre_facet |
Active layer monitoring Active layer thickness Arctic Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Network Climate change north slope permafrost Alaska |
op_relation |
ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences -- ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences -- http://www.isprs.org/publications/annals.aspx -- 2194-9050 https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00015925 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00015880/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf https://www.isprs-ann-photogramm-remote-sens-spatial-inf-sci.net/II-4-W2/199/2015/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/isprsannals-II-4-W2-199-2015 |
container_title |
ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences |
container_volume |
II-4/W2 |
container_start_page |
199 |
op_container_end_page |
206 |
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1766319388216000512 |