Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations
Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00014606 2023-05-15T14:41:57+02:00 Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations Melia, N. Haines, K. Hawkins, E. 2015-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014606 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014561/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014606 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014561/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2015 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 2022-02-08T22:55:00Z Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic The Cryosphere 9 6 2237 2251 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Melia, N. Haines, K. Hawkins, E. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Melia, N. Haines, K. Hawkins, E. |
author_facet |
Melia, N. Haines, K. Hawkins, E. |
author_sort |
Melia, N. |
title |
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
improved arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014606 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014561/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014606 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014561/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2237 |
op_container_end_page |
2251 |
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1766313645525958656 |