Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium

Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature r...

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Published in:Climate of the Past
Main Author: PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015
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spelling ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00014413 2023-05-15T15:12:13+02:00 Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group 2015-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014413 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014368/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/1673/2015/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014413 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014368/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/1673/2015/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2015 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 2022-02-08T22:55:07Z Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Climate of the Past 11 12 1673 1699
institution Open Polar
collection Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA
op_collection_id ftnonlinearchiv
language English
topic article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
spellingShingle article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
topic_facet article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
description Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continental-scale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group
author_facet PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group
author_sort PAGES 2k-PMIP3 group
title Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
title_short Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
title_full Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
title_fullStr Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
title_full_unstemmed Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
title_sort continental-scale temperature variability in pmip3 simulations and pages 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2015
url https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014413
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014368/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/1673/2015/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
genre_facet Arctic
op_relation Climate of the Past -- http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cp/published_papers.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2217985 -- 1814-9332
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014413
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014368/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/11/1673/2015/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf
op_rights uneingeschränkt
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op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015
container_title Climate of the Past
container_volume 11
container_issue 12
container_start_page 1673
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