Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century
Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00014119 2023-05-15T17:57:40+02:00 Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. 2016-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014119 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014075/we-16-37-2016.pdf https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/we-16-37-2016.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Web Ecology -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2032288 -- http://www.web-ecology.net/ -- 1399-1183 https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014119 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014075/we-16-37-2016.pdf https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/we-16-37-2016.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2016 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 2022-02-08T22:55:16Z Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Siberia Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA The Needle ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) Web Ecology 16 1 37 39 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. |
author_facet |
Tchebakova, N. M. Kuzmina, N. A. Parfenova, E. I. Senashova, V. A. Kuzmin, S. R. |
author_sort |
Tchebakova, N. M. |
title |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_short |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_full |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_fullStr |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential climate-induced distributions of Lophodermium needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century |
title_sort |
potential climate-induced distributions of lophodermium needle cast across central siberia in the 21 century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014119 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014075/we-16-37-2016.pdf https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/we-16-37-2016.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) |
geographic |
The Needle |
geographic_facet |
The Needle |
genre |
permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Siberia |
op_relation |
Web Ecology -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2032288 -- http://www.web-ecology.net/ -- 1399-1183 https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00014119 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00014075/we-16-37-2016.pdf https://we.copernicus.org/articles/16/37/2016/we-16-37-2016.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/we-16-37-2016 |
container_title |
Web Ecology |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
39 |
_version_ |
1766166148311678976 |