Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques
A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ∼ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevati...
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00013478 2023-05-15T13:34:48+02:00 Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques Pollard, David Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick DeConto, Robert 2016-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00013478 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00013434/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1697/2016/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Geoscientific Model Development -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2456725 -- http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/ -- 1991-9603 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00013478 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00013434/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1697/2016/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2016 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 2022-02-08T22:55:36Z A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ∼ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation–age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model–data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Geoscientific Model Development 9 5 1697 1723 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Pollard, David Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick DeConto, Robert Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ∼ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation–age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model–data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pollard, David Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick DeConto, Robert |
author_facet |
Pollard, David Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick DeConto, Robert |
author_sort |
Pollard, David |
title |
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
title_short |
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
title_full |
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
title_fullStr |
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
title_sort |
large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the west antarctic ice sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00013478 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00013434/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1697/2016/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Geoscientific Model Development -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2456725 -- http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/ -- 1991-9603 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00013478 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00013434/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1697/2016/gmd-9-1697-2016.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1697 |
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1723 |
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