NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean
Large scale atmospheric oscillations are known to have an influence on waves in the North Atlantic. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale oscillations using...
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Copernicus Publications
2017
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00010809 2023-05-15T17:30:06+02:00 NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean Gleeson, Emily Gallagher, Sarah Clancy, Colm Dias, Frédéric 2017-02 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010809 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00010766/asr-14-23-2017.pdf https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/14/23/2017/asr-14-23-2017.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Advances in Science and Research -- http://www.copernicus.org/COPERNICUS/asr/asr.html -- https://www.adv-sci-res.net/volumes.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2409176 -- 1992-0636 https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010809 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00010766/asr-14-23-2017.pdf https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/14/23/2017/asr-14-23-2017.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2017 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 2022-02-08T22:56:48Z Large scale atmospheric oscillations are known to have an influence on waves in the North Atlantic. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: fluctuations in the difference between the Icelandic low pressure system and the Azore high pressure system). In this study a statistical analysis of the station-based NAO index was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. The NAO index was compared to observations and to projected changes in the index by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. In addition, an ensemble of EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH III wave model projections over the North Atlantic was analysed to determine the correlations between the NAO and significant wave height (Hs) and the NAO and extreme ocean states. For the most part, no statistically significant differences were found between the distributions of observed and modelled station-based NAO or in projected distributions of the NAO. Means and extremes of Hs are projected to decrease on average by the end of this century. The 95th percentile of Hs is strongly positively correlated to the NAO. Projections of Hs extremes are location dependent and in fact, under the influence of positive NAO the 20-year return levels of Hs were found to be amplified in some regions. However, it is important to note that the projected decreases in the 95th percentile of Hs off the west coast of Ireland are not statistically significant in one of the RCP4.5 and one of the RCP8.5 simulations (me41, me83) which indicates that there is still uncertainty in the projections of higher percentiles. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Advances in Science and Research 14 23 33 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Gleeson, Emily Gallagher, Sarah Clancy, Colm Dias, Frédéric NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Large scale atmospheric oscillations are known to have an influence on waves in the North Atlantic. In quantifying how the wave and wind climate of this region may change towards the end of the century due to climate change, it is useful to investigate the influence of large scale oscillations using indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: fluctuations in the difference between the Icelandic low pressure system and the Azore high pressure system). In this study a statistical analysis of the station-based NAO index was carried out using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations, where EC-Earth is a European-developed atmosphere ocean sea-ice coupled climate model. The NAO index was compared to observations and to projected changes in the index by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. In addition, an ensemble of EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH III wave model projections over the North Atlantic was analysed to determine the correlations between the NAO and significant wave height (Hs) and the NAO and extreme ocean states. For the most part, no statistically significant differences were found between the distributions of observed and modelled station-based NAO or in projected distributions of the NAO. Means and extremes of Hs are projected to decrease on average by the end of this century. The 95th percentile of Hs is strongly positively correlated to the NAO. Projections of Hs extremes are location dependent and in fact, under the influence of positive NAO the 20-year return levels of Hs were found to be amplified in some regions. However, it is important to note that the projected decreases in the 95th percentile of Hs off the west coast of Ireland are not statistically significant in one of the RCP4.5 and one of the RCP8.5 simulations (me41, me83) which indicates that there is still uncertainty in the projections of higher percentiles. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gleeson, Emily Gallagher, Sarah Clancy, Colm Dias, Frédéric |
author_facet |
Gleeson, Emily Gallagher, Sarah Clancy, Colm Dias, Frédéric |
author_sort |
Gleeson, Emily |
title |
NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
NAO and extreme ocean states in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
nao and extreme ocean states in the northeast atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010809 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00010766/asr-14-23-2017.pdf https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/14/23/2017/asr-14-23-2017.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Northeast Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Advances in Science and Research -- http://www.copernicus.org/COPERNICUS/asr/asr.html -- https://www.adv-sci-res.net/volumes.html -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2409176 -- 1992-0636 https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010809 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00010766/asr-14-23-2017.pdf https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/14/23/2017/asr-14-23-2017.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-23-2017 |
container_title |
Advances in Science and Research |
container_volume |
14 |
container_start_page |
23 |
op_container_end_page |
33 |
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1766125910425075712 |