Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic
Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, road...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010041 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009998/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
id |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00010041 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00010041 2023-05-15T14:54:11+02:00 Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic Shevnina, Elena Kourzeneva, Ekaterina Kovalenko, Viktor Vihma, Timo 2017-05 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010041 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009998/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2100610 -- http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- 1607-7938 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010041 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009998/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2017 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 2022-02-08T22:57:16Z Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic Nadym ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21 5 2559 2578 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
op_collection_id |
ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
spellingShingle |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung Shevnina, Elena Kourzeneva, Ekaterina Kovalenko, Viktor Vihma, Timo Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shevnina, Elena Kourzeneva, Ekaterina Kovalenko, Viktor Vihma, Timo |
author_facet |
Shevnina, Elena Kourzeneva, Ekaterina Kovalenko, Viktor Vihma, Timo |
author_sort |
Shevnina, Elena |
title |
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
title_short |
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
title_full |
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic |
title_sort |
assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the russian arctic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010041 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009998/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(72.517,72.517,65.533,65.533) |
geographic |
Arctic Nadym |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Nadym |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2100610 -- http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- 1607-7938 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00010041 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009998/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2559/2017/hess-21-2559-2017.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2559-2017 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2559 |
op_container_end_page |
2578 |
_version_ |
1766325912657199104 |