Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values
We present estimates of future 20-year return values for 24 h precipitation based on multi-model ensembles of temperature projections and a crude method to quantify how warmer conditions may influence precipitation intensity. Our results suggest an increase by as much as 40–50 % projected for 2100 f...
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2017
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00009712 2023-05-15T17:34:43+02:00 Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values Benestad, Rasmus E. Parding, Kajsa M. Mezghani, Abdelkader Dyrrdal, Anita V. 2017-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00009712 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009669/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/993/2017/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00009712 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009669/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/993/2017/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2017 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 2022-02-08T22:57:24Z We present estimates of future 20-year return values for 24 h precipitation based on multi-model ensembles of temperature projections and a crude method to quantify how warmer conditions may influence precipitation intensity. Our results suggest an increase by as much as 40–50 % projected for 2100 for a number of locations in Europe, assuming the high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The new strategy was based on combining physical understandings with the limited information available, and it utilised the covariance between the mean seasonal variations in precipitation intensity and the North Atlantic saturation vapour pressure. Rather than estimating the expected values and interannual variability, we tried to estimate an upper bound for the response in the precipitation intensity based on the assumption that the seasonal variations in the precipitation intensity are caused by the seasonal variations in temperature. Return values were subsequently derived from the estimated precipitation intensity through a simple and approximate scheme that combined the 1-year 24 h precipitation return values and downscaled annual wet-day mean precipitation for a 20-year event. The latter was based on the 95th percentile of a multi-model ensemble spread of downscaled climate model results. We found geographical variations in the shape of the seasonal cycle of the wet-day mean precipitation which suggest that different rain-producing mechanisms dominate in different regions. These differences indicate that the simple method used here to estimate the response of precipitation intensity to temperature was more appropriate for convective precipitation than for orographic rainfall. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17 7 993 1001 |
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English |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Benestad, Rasmus E. Parding, Kajsa M. Mezghani, Abdelkader Dyrrdal, Anita V. Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We present estimates of future 20-year return values for 24 h precipitation based on multi-model ensembles of temperature projections and a crude method to quantify how warmer conditions may influence precipitation intensity. Our results suggest an increase by as much as 40–50 % projected for 2100 for a number of locations in Europe, assuming the high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The new strategy was based on combining physical understandings with the limited information available, and it utilised the covariance between the mean seasonal variations in precipitation intensity and the North Atlantic saturation vapour pressure. Rather than estimating the expected values and interannual variability, we tried to estimate an upper bound for the response in the precipitation intensity based on the assumption that the seasonal variations in the precipitation intensity are caused by the seasonal variations in temperature. Return values were subsequently derived from the estimated precipitation intensity through a simple and approximate scheme that combined the 1-year 24 h precipitation return values and downscaled annual wet-day mean precipitation for a 20-year event. The latter was based on the 95th percentile of a multi-model ensemble spread of downscaled climate model results. We found geographical variations in the shape of the seasonal cycle of the wet-day mean precipitation which suggest that different rain-producing mechanisms dominate in different regions. These differences indicate that the simple method used here to estimate the response of precipitation intensity to temperature was more appropriate for convective precipitation than for orographic rainfall. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Benestad, Rasmus E. Parding, Kajsa M. Mezghani, Abdelkader Dyrrdal, Anita V. |
author_facet |
Benestad, Rasmus E. Parding, Kajsa M. Mezghani, Abdelkader Dyrrdal, Anita V. |
author_sort |
Benestad, Rasmus E. |
title |
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
title_short |
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
title_full |
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
title_fullStr |
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
title_sort |
simple and approximate estimations of future precipitation return values |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00009712 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009669/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/993/2017/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2064587 -- http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/ -- 1684-9981 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00009712 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00009669/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/17/993/2017/nhess-17-993-2017.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-993-2017 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
993 |
op_container_end_page |
1001 |
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1766133635429171200 |