How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?
This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 3...
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2017
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00007705 2023-05-15T14:47:46+02:00 How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. 2017-12 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007705 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007662/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007705 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007662/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2017 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 2022-02-08T22:58:22Z This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Arctic The Cryosphere 11 6 3023 3034 |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850 hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_facet |
Rae, Jamie G. L. Todd, Alexander D. Blockley, Edward W. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_sort |
Rae, Jamie G. L. |
title |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_short |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_fullStr |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
title_sort |
how much should we believe correlations between arctic cyclones and sea ice extent? |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007705 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007662/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007705 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007662/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/3023/2017/tc-11-3023-2017.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
3023 |
op_container_end_page |
3034 |
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1766318858702946304 |