The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments
Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of...
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Copernicus Publications
2018
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Van Tiel, Marit Teuling, Adriaan J. Wanders, Niko Vis, Marc J. P. Stahl, Kerstin Van Loon, Anne F. The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004) and future (2071–2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Van Tiel, Marit Teuling, Adriaan J. Wanders, Niko Vis, Marc J. P. Stahl, Kerstin Van Loon, Anne F. |
author_facet |
Van Tiel, Marit Teuling, Adriaan J. Wanders, Niko Vis, Marc J. P. Stahl, Kerstin Van Loon, Anne F. |
author_sort |
Van Tiel, Marit |
title |
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
title_short |
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
title_full |
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
title_fullStr |
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
title_sort |
role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007524 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007481/hess-22-463-2018.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/463/2018/hess-22-463-2018.pdf |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
glacier glacier glaciers Alaska |
genre_facet |
glacier glacier glaciers Alaska |
op_relation |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2100610 -- http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- 1607-7938 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007524 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007481/hess-22-463-2018.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/463/2018/hess-22-463-2018.pdf |
op_rights |
uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
463 |
op_container_end_page |
485 |
_version_ |
1766008419854057472 |
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00007524 2023-05-15T16:20:30+02:00 The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments Van Tiel, Marit Teuling, Adriaan J. Wanders, Niko Vis, Marc J. P. Stahl, Kerstin Van Loon, Anne F. 2018-01 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007524 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007481/hess-22-463-2018.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/463/2018/hess-22-463-2018.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Hydrology and Earth System Sciences -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2100610 -- http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/volumes_and_issues.html -- 1607-7938 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007524 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007481/hess-22-463-2018.pdf https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/22/463/2018/hess-22-463-2018.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2018 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-463-2018 2022-02-08T22:58:28Z Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975–2004) and future (2071–2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier glacier glaciers Alaska Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Norway Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 1 463 485 |