Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global...

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Published in:Earth System Dynamics
Main Authors: Ehlert, Dana, Zickfeld, Kirsten
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2018
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018
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spelling ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00007171 2023-05-15T17:35:08+02:00 Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal Ehlert, Dana Zickfeld, Kirsten 2018-03 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007171 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007128/esd-9-197-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/197/2018/esd-9-197-2018.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007171 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007128/esd-9-197-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/197/2018/esd-9-197-2018.pdf uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2018 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018 2022-02-08T22:58:40Z In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Southern Ocean Earth System Dynamics 9 1 197 210
institution Open Polar
collection Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA
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language English
topic article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
spellingShingle article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
Ehlert, Dana
Zickfeld, Kirsten
Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
topic_facet article
Verlagsveröffentlichung
description In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Ehlert, Dana
Zickfeld, Kirsten
author_facet Ehlert, Dana
Zickfeld, Kirsten
author_sort Ehlert, Dana
title Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
title_short Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
title_full Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
title_fullStr Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
title_full_unstemmed Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
title_sort irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2018
url https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007171
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007128/esd-9-197-2018.pdf
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/197/2018/esd-9-197-2018.pdf
geographic Southern Ocean
geographic_facet Southern Ocean
genre North Atlantic
Southern Ocean
genre_facet North Atlantic
Southern Ocean
op_relation Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018
https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00007171
https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00007128/esd-9-197-2018.pdf
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/197/2018/esd-9-197-2018.pdf
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