Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps
This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and...
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Copernicus Publications
2018
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00006843 2023-05-15T18:32:32+02:00 Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps Verfaillie, Deborah Lafaysse, Matthieu Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Yves Morin, Samuel 2018-04 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00006843 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00006800/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00006843 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00006800/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2018 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 2022-02-08T22:58:50Z This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEX GCM–RCM pairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 ∘C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 ∘C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA The Cryosphere 12 4 1249 1271 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Verfaillie, Deborah Lafaysse, Matthieu Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Yves Morin, Samuel Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEX GCM–RCM pairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 ∘C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 ∘C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verfaillie, Deborah Lafaysse, Matthieu Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Yves Morin, Samuel |
author_facet |
Verfaillie, Deborah Lafaysse, Matthieu Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Yves Morin, Samuel |
author_sort |
Verfaillie, Deborah |
title |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_short |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_fullStr |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_sort |
multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the chartreuse mountain range, northern french alps |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00006843 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00006800/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00006843 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00006800/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1249 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
_version_ |
1766216658638077952 |