Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or w...
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Copernicus Publications
2018
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00005378 2023-05-15T16:52:08+02:00 Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna 2018-07 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00005378 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00005335/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00005378 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00005335/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2018 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 2022-02-08T22:59:39Z Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using a LOA framework. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland The Cryosphere Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Fuller ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) The Cryosphere 12 7 2175 2210 |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
Glacio-hydrological models (GHMs) allow us to develop an understanding of how future climate change will affect river flow regimes in glaciated watersheds. A variety of simplified GHM structures and parameterisations exist, yet the performance of these are rarely quantified at the process level or with metrics beyond global summary statistics. A fuller understanding of the deficiencies in competing model structures and parameterisations and the ability of models to simulate physical processes require performance metrics utilising the full range of uncertainty information within input observations. Here, the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Virkisá River basin in southern Iceland are characterised using 33 signatures derived from observations of ice melt, snow coverage and river discharge. The uncertainty of each set of observations is harnessed to define the limits of acceptability (LOA), a set of criteria used to objectively evaluate the acceptability of different GHM structures and parameterisations. This framework is used to compare and diagnose deficiencies in three melt and three run-off-routing model structures. Increased model complexity is shown to improve acceptability when evaluated against specific signatures but does not always result in better consistency across all signatures, emphasising the difficulty in appropriate model selection and the need for multi-model prediction approaches to account for model selection uncertainty. Melt and run-off-routing structures demonstrate a hierarchy of influence on river discharge signatures with melt model structure having the most influence on discharge hydrograph seasonality and run-off-routing structure on shorter-timescale discharge events. None of the tested GHM structural configurations returned acceptable simulations across the full population of signatures. The framework outlined here provides a comprehensive and rigorous assessment tool for evaluating the acceptability of different GHM process hypotheses. Future melt and run-off model forecasts should seek to diagnose structural model deficiencies and evaluate diagnostic signatures of system behaviour using a LOA framework. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna |
author_facet |
Mackay, Jonathan D. Barrand, Nicholas E. Hannah, David M. Krause, Stefan Jackson, Christopher R. Everest, Jez Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna |
author_sort |
Mackay, Jonathan D. |
title |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_short |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_fullStr |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
title_sort |
glacio-hydrological melt and run-off modelling: application of a limits of acceptability framework for model comparison and selection |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00005378 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00005335/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.350,162.350,-77.867,-77.867) |
geographic |
Fuller |
geographic_facet |
Fuller |
genre |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Iceland The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
The Cryosphere -- ˜Theœ Cryosphere -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2393169 -- http://www.the-cryosphere.net/ -- 1994-0424 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00005378 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00005335/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/2175/2018/tc-12-2175-2018.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2175-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2175 |
op_container_end_page |
2210 |
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1766042284969689088 |