Brief communication: Solar radiation management not as effective as CO2 mitigation for Arctic sea ice loss in hitting the 1.5 and 2 °C COP climate targets

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Ridley, Jeff K., Blockley, Edward W.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2018
• Subjects: article; Verlagsveröffentlichung; Arctic; Global warming; Sea ice; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3355-2018; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004316; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004273/tc-12-3355-2018.pdf; https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/3355/2018/tc-12-3355-2018.pdf

An assessment of the risks of a seasonally ice-free Arctic at 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming above pre-industrial levels is undertaken using model simulations with solar radiation management to achieve the desired temperatures. An ensemble of the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-ES uses solar radiation management (SRM) to achieve the desired global mean temperatures. It is found that the risk for a seasonally ice-free Arctic is reduced for a target temperature for global warming of 1.5 ∘C (0.1 %) compared to 2.0 ∘C (42 %), in general agreement with other methodologies. The SRM produced more ice loss, for a specified global temperature, than for CO2 mitigation scenarios, as SRM produces a higher polar amplification.