Cascading transitions in the climate system
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
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Copernicus Publications
2018
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ftnonlinearchiv:oai:noa.gwlb.de:cop_mods_00004175 2023-05-15T17:31:25+02:00 Cascading transitions in the climate system Dekker, Mark M. von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. 2018-11 electronic https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004175 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004132/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf eng eng Copernicus Publications Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004175 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004132/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY article Verlagsveröffentlichung article Text doc-type:article 2018 ftnonlinearchiv https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 2022-02-08T23:00:16Z We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA Earth System Dynamics 9 4 1243 1260 |
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Open Polar |
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Niedersächsisches Online-Archiv NOA |
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ftnonlinearchiv |
language |
English |
topic |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
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article Verlagsveröffentlichung Dekker, Mark M. von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. Cascading transitions in the climate system |
topic_facet |
article Verlagsveröffentlichung |
description |
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dekker, Mark M. von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_facet |
Dekker, Mark M. von der Heydt, Anna S. Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Dekker, Mark M. |
title |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_short |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_fullStr |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cascading transitions in the climate system |
title_sort |
cascading transitions in the climate system |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004175 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004132/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Earth System Dynamics -- http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2578793 -- 2190-4987 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004175 https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004132/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ uneingeschränkt info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1243 |
op_container_end_page |
1260 |
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1766128959614877696 |