Cascading transitions in the climate system

• Published in: Earth System Dynamics
• Main Authors: Dekker, Mark M., von der Heydt, Anna S., Dijkstra, Henk A.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2018
• Subjects: article; Verlagsveröffentlichung; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018; https://noa.gwlb.de/receive/cop_mods_00004175; https://noa.gwlb.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/cop_derivate_00004132/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf; https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1243/2018/esd-9-1243-2018.pdf

We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold, fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system.