Estimation of the value of buildings and structures in the context of permafrost degradation: The case of the Russian Arctic

• Published in: Polar Science
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Russian arctic; Permafrost thawing risk; Economic damage; Fixed assets; Municipal economy; Arctic; Climate change; permafrost; Polar Science
• Online Access: https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=16817; http://id.nii.ac.jp/1291/00016687/

According to modern scientific forecasts, global climate change will lead to permafrost degradation in a significant part of the Russian Arctic by the second half of the 21st century. Permafrost thaw will cause massive deformation and destruction of fixed assets. The purpose of this research is to estimate the value of buildings and structures located in the Russian Arctic permafrost zone, an important baseline for further direct damage prediction. Currently, there is no reliable and comprehensive information about the value of buildings and structures in the risk area. Making such an estimate would require not only determining the current value of existing buildings and structures, but also forecasting what will happen between now and the second half of the 21st century. This paper uses an original method to assess the value of buildings and structures in different Russian Arctic municipalities that takes into account the value of housing stock, existing and future buildings and structures by economic sector. According to our calculations, the total value of buildings and structures in the Russian Arctic permafrost zone will be about US$133.5 billion by the second half of the 21st century. Of this, about US$94.5 billion will be located in areas of maximum predicted permafrost thaw.