Review of forecast skills for weather and sea ice in supporting Arctic navigation

• Published in: Polar Science
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Operational forecasts; Arctic Challenge for Sustainability; Arctic cyclones; Year of Polar Prediction; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Polar Science; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=16382; http://id.nii.ac.jp/1291/00016260/

Uncertainties in weather and sea-ice forecasts must be taken into consideration in Arctic shipping. The changing Arctic Ocean is characterized by diminishing sea-ice extent. Extremely developed cyclones, unexpectedly high ocean waves, and rapid sea-ice drift make navigation difficult. How state-of-the-art forecasts produced by operational weather centers can be used correctly and effectively by end users (e.g., ship crews and operation companies) is an emerging issue. In this synthesis paper, characteristics of the predictabilities of weather, sea ice, and ocean waves under extreme atmospheric conditions over the Arctic Ocean are presented, with particular focus on the impact of additional radiosonde observations on reducing uncertainties in forecasts. The usefulness of an onboard tool to share forecasting information with ship crew and researchers is also demonstrated, and is recognized as an achievement of the Japanese Arctic research project. Finally, remaining issues with respect to a sustainable Arctic observing network are discussed.