Future change in precipitation intensity over Arctic region projected by 60-km mesh global atmospheric model

• Main Authors: 楠 昌司, 水田 亮, 保坂 征宏, KUSUNOKI Shoji, MIZUTA Ryo, HOSAKA Masahiro
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: Arctic
• Online Access: https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=11671; http://id.nii.ac.jp/1291/00011618/; https://nipr.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=11671&item_no=1&attribute_id=16&file_no=1

Climate of the 20th and 21th century simulation was conducted with a 60km-mesh global atmospheric model (MRIAGCM3.2H) from year 1872 to 2099. For the historical simulation for 1872-2005, the model was forced with observed historical sea surface temperature (SST) and concentrations of green house gases such as CO2. For the future simulation for 2006-2099, the model was forced with SST changes projected by the average of Couple Model Intercomparison Project3 (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble. The A1B emission scenario is assumed. In order to evaluate uncertainty simulations, three member ensemble simulations with different atmospheric initial conditions were conducted. Measures of precipitation intensity such as Simple Daily precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) and maximum 5 day total precipitation (R5d) were calculated annually. Precipitation intensities (SDII, R5d) averaged over Arctic region (67.5-90N) increase monotonically in the 21st century. 第4回極域科学シンポジウム個別セッション：[OM] 気水圏11月14日（木） 統計数理研究所 ３階セミナー室１（D305）