Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change
Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Repres...
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Online Access: | https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/14/372014.pdf |
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ftnioz:oai:imis.nioz.nl:344889 2023-05-15T18:43:55+02:00 Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change Lima, A.R.A Baltazar-Soares, M. Garrido, S. Riveiro, I. Carrera, P. Piecho-Santos, A.M. Peck, M.A. Silva, G. 2022 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/14/372014.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000701780900011 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/14/372014.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3ESci.+Total+Environ.+804%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+150167.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2021.150167%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2021.150167%3C%2Fa%3E Sardina pilchardus info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftnioz https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167 2022-05-01T14:15:11Z Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter the large scale distribution of European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) by 2050 and 2100. We evaluated the variability of species-specific environmental optima allowing a comparison between present-day and future scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, sea surface temperature and salinity and the interaction between current velocity and distance to the nearest coast were the main descriptors responsible for the main effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day and future potential “hotspots” for sardine were neritic zones (<250 km) with water currents <0.4 m s −1 , where SST was between 10 and 22 °C and SSS > 20 (PSU), on average. Most variability in projected shifts among climatic scenarios was in habitats with moderate to low suitability. By the end of this century, habitat suitability was projected to increase in the Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, and eastern Black Sea and to decrease in the Atlantic African coast, southwest Mediterranean, English Channel, northern North Sea and Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift in sardine distribution was also projected among scenarios. This shift was most pronounced in 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that scenario, sardines had a 9.6% range expansion which included waters along the entire coast of Norway up and into the White Sea. As habitat suitability is mediated by the synergic effects of climate variability and change on species fitness, it is critical to apply models with robust underlying species-habitat data that integrate knowledge on the full range of processes shaping species productivity and distribution. Article in Journal/Newspaper White Sea NIOZ Repository (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) Norway White Sea Science of The Total Environment 804 150167 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
NIOZ Repository (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftnioz |
language |
English |
topic |
Sardina pilchardus |
spellingShingle |
Sardina pilchardus Lima, A.R.A Baltazar-Soares, M. Garrido, S. Riveiro, I. Carrera, P. Piecho-Santos, A.M. Peck, M.A. Silva, G. Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
topic_facet |
Sardina pilchardus |
description |
Climate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the match-mismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter the large scale distribution of European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) by 2050 and 2100. We evaluated the variability of species-specific environmental optima allowing a comparison between present-day and future scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, sea surface temperature and salinity and the interaction between current velocity and distance to the nearest coast were the main descriptors responsible for the main effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day and future potential “hotspots” for sardine were neritic zones (<250 km) with water currents <0.4 m s −1 , where SST was between 10 and 22 °C and SSS > 20 (PSU), on average. Most variability in projected shifts among climatic scenarios was in habitats with moderate to low suitability. By the end of this century, habitat suitability was projected to increase in the Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, and eastern Black Sea and to decrease in the Atlantic African coast, southwest Mediterranean, English Channel, northern North Sea and Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift in sardine distribution was also projected among scenarios. This shift was most pronounced in 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that scenario, sardines had a 9.6% range expansion which included waters along the entire coast of Norway up and into the White Sea. As habitat suitability is mediated by the synergic effects of climate variability and change on species fitness, it is critical to apply models with robust underlying species-habitat data that integrate knowledge on the full range of processes shaping species productivity and distribution. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lima, A.R.A Baltazar-Soares, M. Garrido, S. Riveiro, I. Carrera, P. Piecho-Santos, A.M. Peck, M.A. Silva, G. |
author_facet |
Lima, A.R.A Baltazar-Soares, M. Garrido, S. Riveiro, I. Carrera, P. Piecho-Santos, A.M. Peck, M.A. Silva, G. |
author_sort |
Lima, A.R.A |
title |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
title_short |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
title_full |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
title_sort |
forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/14/372014.pdf |
geographic |
Norway White Sea |
geographic_facet |
Norway White Sea |
genre |
White Sea |
genre_facet |
White Sea |
op_source |
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op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000701780900011 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/14/372014.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167 |
container_title |
Science of The Total Environment |
container_volume |
804 |
container_start_page |
150167 |
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1766234460676685824 |