Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar
Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in th...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3132726 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
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ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/3132726 2024-06-23T07:51:16+00:00 Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3132726 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 eng eng EU – Horisont Europa (EC/HEU): Marie Sklodowska-CurieActions, Grant/Award Number: 956623 Andre: ScienceFoundation Ireland EU – Horisont Europa (EC/HEU): Marine Institute Grant-in-Aid Grant/AwardNr: RESPI/BIO/21/01 Journal of Fish Biology. 2023, . urn:issn:0022-1112 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3132726 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 cristin:2207814 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors 647-661 104 Journal of Fish Biology aquatic ectotherms growing degree days ISIMIP life history population dynamics VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Peer reviewed Journal article 2023 ftninstnf https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 2024-06-07T04:02:42Z Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree ays calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently,the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA Journal of Fish Biology 104 3 647 661 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA |
op_collection_id |
ftninstnf |
language |
English |
topic |
aquatic ectotherms growing degree days ISIMIP life history population dynamics VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
spellingShingle |
aquatic ectotherms growing degree days ISIMIP life history population dynamics VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
topic_facet |
aquatic ectotherms growing degree days ISIMIP life history population dynamics VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
description |
Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree ays calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently,the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip |
author_facet |
Rinaldo, Adrian de Eyto, Elvira Reed, Thomas Gjelland, Karl Øystein McGinnity, Philip |
author_sort |
Rinaldo, Adrian |
title |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_short |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_full |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_fullStr |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
title_sort |
global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in atlantic salmon salmo salar |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3132726 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
647-661 104 Journal of Fish Biology |
op_relation |
EU – Horisont Europa (EC/HEU): Marie Sklodowska-CurieActions, Grant/Award Number: 956623 Andre: ScienceFoundation Ireland EU – Horisont Europa (EC/HEU): Marine Institute Grant-in-Aid Grant/AwardNr: RESPI/BIO/21/01 Journal of Fish Biology. 2023, . urn:issn:0022-1112 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3132726 https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 cristin:2207814 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.15603 |
container_title |
Journal of Fish Biology |
container_volume |
104 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
647 |
op_container_end_page |
661 |
_version_ |
1802642302574788608 |