Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance
Vertebrate populations are often monitored as part of broader assessments of ecosystem status, where they are expected to provide information on the ability of the ecosystem to support higher-level predators. However, because many vertebrates are long-lived and often only subsets of their population...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3107698 https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 |
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ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/3107698 2024-01-14T10:10:13+01:00 Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Schekkerman, Hans Dierschke, Volker Parsons, Matt Marra, Stefano Mitchell, Ian Greater North Sea region, Northwest Europe 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3107698 https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 eng eng EU/. IBIS. 2023, . urn:issn:0019-1019 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3107698 https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 cristin:2212643 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors 11 IBIS breeding success indicator Marine Strategy Framework Directive seabirds VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Peer reviewed Journal article 2023 ftninstnf https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 2023-12-20T23:49:28Z Vertebrate populations are often monitored as part of broader assessments of ecosystem status, where they are expected to provide information on the ability of the ecosystem to support higher-level predators. However, because many vertebrates are long-lived and often only subsets of their populations can be monitored, abundance may not be sufficiently responsive to ecosystem status to provide early warnings of impending changes. Marine birds are often used as indicators of ecosystem status but, due to their long lifespan and delayed recruitment to the breeding population, changes in abundance are generally slow and often difficult to interpret. Their breeding productivity is, however, also widely monitored and much more responsive to ecosystem status, but the relevance of variation in productivity may be difficult to assess. We propose a model-based indicator that integrates monitoring of abundance and breeding productivity through demographic matrix models. The metric of the proposed indicator is the expected population growth rate, given the observed level of breeding productivity. This expected growth rate is then compared with a threshold derived from the criteria employed for red-listing of threatened species by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. We demonstrate the suggested approach using data from Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in the Greater North Sea region, Northwest Europe. The proposed indicator shows that the current level of breeding productivity is expected to lead to a population decline of 3–4% per year, which is equivalent to a red-list status as Endangered for the species in this region. Our indicator approach is used in OSPAR’s Quality Status Report 2023 and is expected to be used by European Union member states for reporting under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in 2024. Our approach represents a major step forward in assessing the status of marine bird populations; the ideal next step would be to develop a coherent Integrated Population Modelling (IPM) ... Article in Journal/Newspaper rissa tridactyla Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA Ibis |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA |
op_collection_id |
ftninstnf |
language |
English |
topic |
breeding success indicator Marine Strategy Framework Directive seabirds VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
spellingShingle |
breeding success indicator Marine Strategy Framework Directive seabirds VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Schekkerman, Hans Dierschke, Volker Parsons, Matt Marra, Stefano Mitchell, Ian Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
topic_facet |
breeding success indicator Marine Strategy Framework Directive seabirds VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
description |
Vertebrate populations are often monitored as part of broader assessments of ecosystem status, where they are expected to provide information on the ability of the ecosystem to support higher-level predators. However, because many vertebrates are long-lived and often only subsets of their populations can be monitored, abundance may not be sufficiently responsive to ecosystem status to provide early warnings of impending changes. Marine birds are often used as indicators of ecosystem status but, due to their long lifespan and delayed recruitment to the breeding population, changes in abundance are generally slow and often difficult to interpret. Their breeding productivity is, however, also widely monitored and much more responsive to ecosystem status, but the relevance of variation in productivity may be difficult to assess. We propose a model-based indicator that integrates monitoring of abundance and breeding productivity through demographic matrix models. The metric of the proposed indicator is the expected population growth rate, given the observed level of breeding productivity. This expected growth rate is then compared with a threshold derived from the criteria employed for red-listing of threatened species by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. We demonstrate the suggested approach using data from Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla in the Greater North Sea region, Northwest Europe. The proposed indicator shows that the current level of breeding productivity is expected to lead to a population decline of 3–4% per year, which is equivalent to a red-list status as Endangered for the species in this region. Our indicator approach is used in OSPAR’s Quality Status Report 2023 and is expected to be used by European Union member states for reporting under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive in 2024. Our approach represents a major step forward in assessing the status of marine bird populations; the ideal next step would be to develop a coherent Integrated Population Modelling (IPM) ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Schekkerman, Hans Dierschke, Volker Parsons, Matt Marra, Stefano Mitchell, Ian |
author_facet |
Frederiksen, Morten Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Schekkerman, Hans Dierschke, Volker Parsons, Matt Marra, Stefano Mitchell, Ian |
author_sort |
Frederiksen, Morten |
title |
Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
title_short |
Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
title_full |
Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
title_fullStr |
Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
title_sort |
model-based assessment of marine bird population status using monitoring of breeding productivity and abundance |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3107698 https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 |
op_coverage |
Greater North Sea region, Northwest Europe |
genre |
rissa tridactyla |
genre_facet |
rissa tridactyla |
op_source |
11 IBIS |
op_relation |
EU/. IBIS. 2023, . urn:issn:0019-1019 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3107698 https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 cristin:2212643 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2023 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13288 |
container_title |
Ibis |
_version_ |
1788064850325274624 |