Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland
ABSTRACT The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is one of the most conflictual mammals in Europe. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) are an essential part of gray wolf diet in central Europe, but after the emergence of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, a sharp decline of the wild boar occurred. We examined how the wild...
Published in: | Ecological Indicators |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987642 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 |
id |
ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/2987642 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/2987642 2023-05-15T15:50:19+02:00 Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland Klich, Daniel Sobczuk, Maria Basak, Sayantani M. Wierzbowska, Izabela A. Tallian, Aimee Grace Hędrzak, Magdalena Popczyk, Bartłomiej Żoch, Krzysztof Europe 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987642 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 eng eng Ecological Indicators. 2021, 133 1-11. urn:issn:1470-160X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987642 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 cristin:1971732 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © 2021 The Authors CC-BY-NC-ND 1-11 133 Ecological Indicators 108419 VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Peer reviewed Journal article 2021 ftninstnf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 2022-03-30T22:41:35Z ABSTRACT The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is one of the most conflictual mammals in Europe. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) are an essential part of gray wolf diet in central Europe, but after the emergence of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, a sharp decline of the wild boar occurred. We examined how the wild boar population decline, due to African swine fever outbreak and mitigation efforts, affected the number of livestock killed by wolves in Poland using long-term data on wild ungulate and livestock population sizes and wolf-induced mortality between 2013 and 2019. We examined the influence of multiple factors on livestock kill rate, and the influence of wild boar population declines on the number of Cervidae killed by wolves using linear mixed models. We also explored the possibility of predicting a dramatic decrease in the wild boar population based on livestock depredation patterns. The number of livestock killed by wolves decreased with wild boar and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population size, and increased with red deer (Cervus elaphus) population size. A decline in the wild boar population was significantly correlated with an increase in the number of both red and roe deer killed by wolves. A drastic decline of wild boar population (over 30%) could be predicted by the numbers of livestock killed by wolves. Our study confirms that large changes in the number of naturl prey can increase livestock depredation, although these changes may be difficult to detect when the fluctuations in the numbers of natural prey are smaller. In our opinion, this indicates that the assessment of factors influencing livestock depredation should consider historical changes in prey dynamics. We suggest managers and conservationists use the predator population as a ’first alert system’ for indirect monitoring of prey species. In this system, a sudden increase in wolf attacks on livestock across a large area of should trigger an alarm and prompt verification of the numb African swine fever ASF Epidemic Gray wolf (Canis lupus) Wild boar (Sus scrofa) Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) Red deer (Cervus elaphus) Livestock er of natural prey in the environment. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus gray wolf Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA Ecological Indicators 133 108419 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA |
op_collection_id |
ftninstnf |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Klich, Daniel Sobczuk, Maria Basak, Sayantani M. Wierzbowska, Izabela A. Tallian, Aimee Grace Hędrzak, Magdalena Popczyk, Bartłomiej Żoch, Krzysztof Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
topic_facet |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
description |
ABSTRACT The gray wolf (Canis lupus) is one of the most conflictual mammals in Europe. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) are an essential part of gray wolf diet in central Europe, but after the emergence of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe, a sharp decline of the wild boar occurred. We examined how the wild boar population decline, due to African swine fever outbreak and mitigation efforts, affected the number of livestock killed by wolves in Poland using long-term data on wild ungulate and livestock population sizes and wolf-induced mortality between 2013 and 2019. We examined the influence of multiple factors on livestock kill rate, and the influence of wild boar population declines on the number of Cervidae killed by wolves using linear mixed models. We also explored the possibility of predicting a dramatic decrease in the wild boar population based on livestock depredation patterns. The number of livestock killed by wolves decreased with wild boar and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population size, and increased with red deer (Cervus elaphus) population size. A decline in the wild boar population was significantly correlated with an increase in the number of both red and roe deer killed by wolves. A drastic decline of wild boar population (over 30%) could be predicted by the numbers of livestock killed by wolves. Our study confirms that large changes in the number of naturl prey can increase livestock depredation, although these changes may be difficult to detect when the fluctuations in the numbers of natural prey are smaller. In our opinion, this indicates that the assessment of factors influencing livestock depredation should consider historical changes in prey dynamics. We suggest managers and conservationists use the predator population as a ’first alert system’ for indirect monitoring of prey species. In this system, a sudden increase in wolf attacks on livestock across a large area of should trigger an alarm and prompt verification of the numb African swine fever ASF Epidemic Gray wolf (Canis lupus) Wild boar (Sus scrofa) Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) Red deer (Cervus elaphus) Livestock er of natural prey in the environment. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Klich, Daniel Sobczuk, Maria Basak, Sayantani M. Wierzbowska, Izabela A. Tallian, Aimee Grace Hędrzak, Magdalena Popczyk, Bartłomiej Żoch, Krzysztof |
author_facet |
Klich, Daniel Sobczuk, Maria Basak, Sayantani M. Wierzbowska, Izabela A. Tallian, Aimee Grace Hędrzak, Magdalena Popczyk, Bartłomiej Żoch, Krzysztof |
author_sort |
Klich, Daniel |
title |
Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
title_short |
Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
title_full |
Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
title_fullStr |
Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? The indirect effects of an African swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in Poland |
title_sort |
predation on livestock as an indicator of drastic prey decline? the indirect effects of an african swine fever epidemic on predator–prey relations in poland |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987642 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 |
op_coverage |
Europe |
genre |
Canis lupus gray wolf |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus gray wolf |
op_source |
1-11 133 Ecological Indicators 108419 |
op_relation |
Ecological Indicators. 2021, 133 1-11. urn:issn:1470-160X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987642 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 cristin:1971732 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no © 2021 The Authors |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108419 |
container_title |
Ecological Indicators |
container_volume |
133 |
container_start_page |
108419 |
_version_ |
1766385290500374528 |