Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates
Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of cli...
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ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/2607430 2023-05-15T14:52:26+02:00 Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates Kwon, Eunbi Weiser, Emily L. Lanctot, Richard B. Brown, Stephen C. Gates, Heather R. Gilchrist, Grant Kendall, Steve J. Lank, David B. Liebezeit, Joseph R. McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David C. Rausch, Jennie Rinella, Daniel J. Saalfeld, Sarah T. Senner, Nathan R. Smith, Paul A. Ward, David Wisseman, Robert W. Sandercock, Brett 2019 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2607430 eng eng urn:issn:0012-9615 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2607430 cristin:1714241 © 2019 by the Ecological Society of America Ecological Monographs arctic invertebrates phenology spatial gradient structural equation modeling timing of breeding trophic interactions VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Peer reviewed 2019 ftninstnf 2021-12-23T07:16:54Z Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon and what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at 10 sites spread across ~13° latitude and ~84° longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at (1) an individual-nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and (2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used structural equation modeling to test for causal relationships among (1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, (2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and (3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of longterm snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for Arctic-nesting birds. Arctic invertebrates; phenology; spatial gradient; structural equation modeling; timing of breeding; trophic interactions. acceptedVersion Text Arctic Climate change Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA |
op_collection_id |
ftninstnf |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic invertebrates phenology spatial gradient structural equation modeling timing of breeding trophic interactions VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
spellingShingle |
arctic invertebrates phenology spatial gradient structural equation modeling timing of breeding trophic interactions VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Kwon, Eunbi Weiser, Emily L. Lanctot, Richard B. Brown, Stephen C. Gates, Heather R. Gilchrist, Grant Kendall, Steve J. Lank, David B. Liebezeit, Joseph R. McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David C. Rausch, Jennie Rinella, Daniel J. Saalfeld, Sarah T. Senner, Nathan R. Smith, Paul A. Ward, David Wisseman, Robert W. Sandercock, Brett Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
topic_facet |
arctic invertebrates phenology spatial gradient structural equation modeling timing of breeding trophic interactions VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
description |
Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or “phenological mismatches.” Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon and what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at 10 sites spread across ~13° latitude and ~84° longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at (1) an individual-nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and (2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used structural equation modeling to test for causal relationships among (1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, (2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and (3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of longterm snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for Arctic-nesting birds. Arctic invertebrates; phenology; spatial gradient; structural equation modeling; timing of breeding; trophic interactions. acceptedVersion |
format |
Text |
author |
Kwon, Eunbi Weiser, Emily L. Lanctot, Richard B. Brown, Stephen C. Gates, Heather R. Gilchrist, Grant Kendall, Steve J. Lank, David B. Liebezeit, Joseph R. McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David C. Rausch, Jennie Rinella, Daniel J. Saalfeld, Sarah T. Senner, Nathan R. Smith, Paul A. Ward, David Wisseman, Robert W. Sandercock, Brett |
author_facet |
Kwon, Eunbi Weiser, Emily L. Lanctot, Richard B. Brown, Stephen C. Gates, Heather R. Gilchrist, Grant Kendall, Steve J. Lank, David B. Liebezeit, Joseph R. McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David C. Rausch, Jennie Rinella, Daniel J. Saalfeld, Sarah T. Senner, Nathan R. Smith, Paul A. Ward, David Wisseman, Robert W. Sandercock, Brett |
author_sort |
Kwon, Eunbi |
title |
Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
title_short |
Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
title_full |
Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
title_fullStr |
Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
title_sort |
geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between arctic shorebirds and invertebrates |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2607430 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Ecological Monographs |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0012-9615 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2607430 cristin:1714241 |
op_rights |
© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America |
_version_ |
1766323672312709120 |