Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird
Negative effects of long-transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants (POPs), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POPs have recently declined in the Northern Hemisphere. However,...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506080 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 |
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ftninstnf:oai:brage.nina.no:11250/2506080 2023-05-15T14:56:45+02:00 Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove Grindøya Nature Reserve, Tromsø, Norway 2018 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506080 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 eng eng urn:issn:2150-8925 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506080 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 cristin:1597666 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2018 The Authors CC-BY 9 Ecosphere 7 arctic climatic vulnerability computer experimentation Cormack–Jolly–Seber models fitness Grindøya Nature Reserve Tromsø Norway literature review organochlorine contaminants (OCs) population viability analysis Somateria mollissima stress ecology VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Journal article Peer reviewed 2018 ftninstnf https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 2021-12-23T07:17:03Z Negative effects of long-transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants (POPs), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POPs have recently declined in the Northern Hemisphere. However, organisms are exposed to multiple stressors and the impacts of pollution act in concert with both natural and other anthropogenic stressors. In theory, this means that even sub-lethal POP concentrations may cause adverse effects if they co-occur with increased levels of other stressors. We tested the multiple stress hypothesis on common eiders, a marine duck with a northern geographical distribution, by assessing the relative importance of pollution, climate (winter sea surface temperature; SSTw), and egg predation on population dynamics and viability (i.e., extinction risk) using Leslie-matrix population models. The model was parametrized by estimating reproduction and apparent adult survival using long-term data from a common eider population in sub-arctic Europe. Average annual adult survival was 0.80 (coefficient of variation [CV] = 22.00%) and showed a negative, both direct and delayed, relationship with SSTw. Average clutch size was 4.41 eggs (CV = 5.12%) and varied in time showing periods of both positive and negative trends, but showed no relationship with SSTw. We based immature survival on estimates from literature: 0.52 and 0.68 for juveniles and yearlings, respectively. Our model supported the multiple stress hypothesis as changes in a single stressor did not induce extinctions, unless the magnitude of our manipulations was extreme except for egg predation. The effect of pollution was, however, increasingly negative when it cooccurred with a warming climate and egg predation—and population viability was lowest when all the stressors occurred simultaneously. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Common Eider Somateria mollissima Tromsø Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA Arctic Grindøya ENVELOPE(7.564,7.564,63.053,63.053) Norway Tromsø Ecosphere 9 7 e02342 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research: Brage NINA |
op_collection_id |
ftninstnf |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic climatic vulnerability computer experimentation Cormack–Jolly–Seber models fitness Grindøya Nature Reserve Tromsø Norway literature review organochlorine contaminants (OCs) population viability analysis Somateria mollissima stress ecology VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
spellingShingle |
arctic climatic vulnerability computer experimentation Cormack–Jolly–Seber models fitness Grindøya Nature Reserve Tromsø Norway literature review organochlorine contaminants (OCs) population viability analysis Somateria mollissima stress ecology VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
topic_facet |
arctic climatic vulnerability computer experimentation Cormack–Jolly–Seber models fitness Grindøya Nature Reserve Tromsø Norway literature review organochlorine contaminants (OCs) population viability analysis Somateria mollissima stress ecology VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 |
description |
Negative effects of long-transported pollutants, such as many persistent organic pollutants (POPs), on seabirds and other top predators have been documented for decades. Yet, the concentrations, and hence, the negative impacts of many POPs have recently declined in the Northern Hemisphere. However, organisms are exposed to multiple stressors and the impacts of pollution act in concert with both natural and other anthropogenic stressors. In theory, this means that even sub-lethal POP concentrations may cause adverse effects if they co-occur with increased levels of other stressors. We tested the multiple stress hypothesis on common eiders, a marine duck with a northern geographical distribution, by assessing the relative importance of pollution, climate (winter sea surface temperature; SSTw), and egg predation on population dynamics and viability (i.e., extinction risk) using Leslie-matrix population models. The model was parametrized by estimating reproduction and apparent adult survival using long-term data from a common eider population in sub-arctic Europe. Average annual adult survival was 0.80 (coefficient of variation [CV] = 22.00%) and showed a negative, both direct and delayed, relationship with SSTw. Average clutch size was 4.41 eggs (CV = 5.12%) and varied in time showing periods of both positive and negative trends, but showed no relationship with SSTw. We based immature survival on estimates from literature: 0.52 and 0.68 for juveniles and yearlings, respectively. Our model supported the multiple stress hypothesis as changes in a single stressor did not induce extinctions, unless the magnitude of our manipulations was extreme except for egg predation. The effect of pollution was, however, increasingly negative when it cooccurred with a warming climate and egg predation—and population viability was lowest when all the stressors occurred simultaneously. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove |
author_facet |
Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen Hanssen, Sveinn Are Bustnes, Jan Ove |
author_sort |
Bårdsen, Bård-Jørgen |
title |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
title_short |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
title_full |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
title_fullStr |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
title_sort |
multiple stressors: modeling the effect of pollution, climate, and predation on viability of a sub-arctic marine bird |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506080 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 |
op_coverage |
Grindøya Nature Reserve, Tromsø, Norway |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(7.564,7.564,63.053,63.053) |
geographic |
Arctic Grindøya Norway Tromsø |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Grindøya Norway Tromsø |
genre |
Arctic Common Eider Somateria mollissima Tromsø |
genre_facet |
Arctic Common Eider Somateria mollissima Tromsø |
op_source |
9 Ecosphere 7 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:2150-8925 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2506080 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 cristin:1597666 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © 2018 The Authors |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2342 |
container_title |
Ecosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e02342 |
_version_ |
1766328833726742528 |