Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–la...
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ftnilu:oai:nilu.brage.unit.no:11250/3136133 2024-09-15T18:34:35+00:00 Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 He, Shengping Drange, Helge Furevik, Tore Wang, Hui-Jun Fan, Ke Graff, Lise Seland Orsolini, Yvan Joseph Georges Emile G. 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3136133 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 eng eng Norges forskningsråd: 328943 EC/H2020/727862 Norges forskningsråd: 325440 Sigma2: NN2345K Sigma2: NS2345K NILU: 121155 Sigma2: NS9560K Sigma2: NS9034K Sigma2: NS9252K Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2024. urn:issn:0256-1530 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3136133 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 cristin:2177099 Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © The Author(s) 2024. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences Peer reviewed Journal article 2023 ftnilu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 2024-07-01T23:30:57Z To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling. acceptedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research: NILU Brage Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 41 8 1511 1526 |
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Open Polar |
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NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research: NILU Brage |
op_collection_id |
ftnilu |
language |
English |
description |
To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia” (WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day (or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day (or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four (ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day (future) experiment; the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60% (80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day (future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-loss-induced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling. acceptedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
He, Shengping Drange, Helge Furevik, Tore Wang, Hui-Jun Fan, Ke Graff, Lise Seland Orsolini, Yvan Joseph Georges Emile G. |
spellingShingle |
He, Shengping Drange, Helge Furevik, Tore Wang, Hui-Jun Fan, Ke Graff, Lise Seland Orsolini, Yvan Joseph Georges Emile G. Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
author_facet |
He, Shengping Drange, Helge Furevik, Tore Wang, Hui-Jun Fan, Ke Graff, Lise Seland Orsolini, Yvan Joseph Georges Emile G. |
author_sort |
He, Shengping |
title |
Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
title_short |
Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
title_full |
Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
title_fullStr |
Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter Arctic to East Asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with NorESM2 |
title_sort |
relative impacts of sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability on winter arctic to east asian surface air temperature based on large-ensemble simulations with noresm2 |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3136133 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 328943 EC/H2020/727862 Norges forskningsråd: 325440 Sigma2: NN2345K Sigma2: NS2345K NILU: 121155 Sigma2: NS9560K Sigma2: NS9034K Sigma2: NS9252K Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2024. urn:issn:0256-1530 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3136133 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 cristin:2177099 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no © The Author(s) 2024. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3006-9 |
container_title |
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1511 |
op_container_end_page |
1526 |
_version_ |
1810476472411881472 |