Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions
Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consu...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623027 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 |
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ftnhmlondon:oai:nhm.openrepository.com:10141/623027 2023-07-30T04:07:01+02:00 Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions Green, Cara‐Paige Green, David B Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary‐Anne Baylis, Alastair MM Bond, AL Bost, Charles‐André Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J González‐Solís, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W Poisbleau, Maud Pütz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G Sagar, Paul M Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean‐Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A 2022-11-25T11:09:15Z http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623027 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 en eng Wiley Green, C.-P., Green, D. B., Ratcliffe, N., Thompson, D., Lea, M.-A., Baylis, A. M. M., Bond, A. L., Bost, C.-A., Crofts, S., Cuthbert, R. J., González-Solís, J., Morrison, K. W., Poisbleau, M., Pütz, K., Rey, A. R., Ryan, P. G., Sagar, P. M., Steinfurth, A., Thiebot, J.-B. … Hindell, M. A. (2022). Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions. Global Change Biology, 00, 1– 20. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 1354-1013 doi:10.1111/gcb.16500 http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623027 1365-2486 Global Change Biology openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ climate change habitat preference models migration overwinter species redistributions Subantarctic penguins Journal Article 2022 ftnhmlondon https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 2023-07-11T05:41:06Z Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change. Copyright© 2022 The Authors. Global Change ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Natural History Museum Repository Indian Pacific Southern Ocean Global Change Biology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural History Museum Repository |
op_collection_id |
ftnhmlondon |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change habitat preference models migration overwinter species redistributions Subantarctic penguins |
spellingShingle |
climate change habitat preference models migration overwinter species redistributions Subantarctic penguins Green, Cara‐Paige Green, David B Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary‐Anne Baylis, Alastair MM Bond, AL Bost, Charles‐André Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J González‐Solís, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W Poisbleau, Maud Pütz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G Sagar, Paul M Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean‐Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
topic_facet |
climate change habitat preference models migration overwinter species redistributions Subantarctic penguins |
description |
Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change. Copyright© 2022 The Authors. Global Change ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Green, Cara‐Paige Green, David B Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary‐Anne Baylis, Alastair MM Bond, AL Bost, Charles‐André Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J González‐Solís, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W Poisbleau, Maud Pütz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G Sagar, Paul M Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean‐Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A |
author_facet |
Green, Cara‐Paige Green, David B Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary‐Anne Baylis, Alastair MM Bond, AL Bost, Charles‐André Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J González‐Solís, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W Poisbleau, Maud Pütz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G Sagar, Paul M Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean‐Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A |
author_sort |
Green, Cara‐Paige |
title |
Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_short |
Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_full |
Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_fullStr |
Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_sort |
potential for redistribution of post‐moult habitat for eudyptes penguins in the southern ocean under future climate conditions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623027 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Green, C.-P., Green, D. B., Ratcliffe, N., Thompson, D., Lea, M.-A., Baylis, A. M. M., Bond, A. L., Bost, C.-A., Crofts, S., Cuthbert, R. J., González-Solís, J., Morrison, K. W., Poisbleau, M., Pütz, K., Rey, A. R., Ryan, P. G., Sagar, P. M., Steinfurth, A., Thiebot, J.-B. … Hindell, M. A. (2022). Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions. Global Change Biology, 00, 1– 20. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 1354-1013 doi:10.1111/gcb.16500 http://hdl.handle.net/10141/623027 1365-2486 Global Change Biology |
op_rights |
openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16500 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
_version_ |
1772820076816236544 |