Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data

The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We de...

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Published in:Ecology
Main Authors: Grosbois, V., Harris, M.P., Anker-Nilssen, T., McCleery, R.H., Shaw, D.N., Morgan, B.J.T., Gimenez, O.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: 2009
Subjects:
Online Access:http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8574/
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-1657.1
id ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:8574
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spelling ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:8574 2023-05-15T15:27:57+02:00 Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data Grosbois, V. Harris, M.P. Anker-Nilssen, T. McCleery, R.H. Shaw, D.N. Morgan, B.J.T. Gimenez, O. 2009-10 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8574/ http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-1657.1 unknown Grosbois, V.; Harris, M.P.; Anker-Nilssen, T.; McCleery, R.H.; Shaw, D.N.; Morgan, B.J.T.; Gimenez, O. 2009 Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data. Ecology, 90 (10). 2922-2932. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 <https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1> Marine Sciences Ecology and Environment Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 2023-02-04T19:25:34Z The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations. When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents. Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic puffin fratercula Fratercula arctica Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Ecology 90 10 2922 2932
institution Open Polar
collection Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive
op_collection_id ftnerc
language unknown
topic Marine Sciences
Ecology and Environment
spellingShingle Marine Sciences
Ecology and Environment
Grosbois, V.
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, T.
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, O.
Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
topic_facet Marine Sciences
Ecology and Environment
description The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations. When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents. Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Grosbois, V.
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, T.
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, O.
author_facet Grosbois, V.
Harris, M.P.
Anker-Nilssen, T.
McCleery, R.H.
Shaw, D.N.
Morgan, B.J.T.
Gimenez, O.
author_sort Grosbois, V.
title Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
title_short Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
title_full Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
title_fullStr Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
title_full_unstemmed Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
title_sort modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
publishDate 2009
url http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8574/
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-1657.1
genre Atlantic puffin
fratercula
Fratercula arctica
genre_facet Atlantic puffin
fratercula
Fratercula arctica
op_relation Grosbois, V.; Harris, M.P.; Anker-Nilssen, T.; McCleery, R.H.; Shaw, D.N.; Morgan, B.J.T.; Gimenez, O. 2009 Modelling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data. Ecology, 90 (10). 2922-2932. https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1 <https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1>
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1890/08-1657.1
container_title Ecology
container_volume 90
container_issue 10
container_start_page 2922
op_container_end_page 2932
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