Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods
The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:8 2024-06-09T07:40:19+00:00 Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods Arthern, Robert J. Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. 2006 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8/ https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 unknown Royal Society Arthern, Robert J. orcid:0000-0002-3762-8219 Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. orcid:0000-0003-1633-2416 . 2006 Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 364 (1844). 1841-1865. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801> Glaciology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2006 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 2024-05-15T08:39:04Z The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic The Antarctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364 1844 1841 1865 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
Glaciology Arthern, Robert J. Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
topic_facet |
Glaciology |
description |
The problem of forecasting the future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered. We describe a method for optimizing this forecast by combining a model of ice sheet flow with observations. Under certain assumptions, a linearized model of glacial flow can be combined with observations of the thickness change, snow accumulation, and ice-flow, to forecast the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise. Numerical simulations show that this approach can potentially be used to test whether changes observed in Antarctica are consistent with the natural forcing of a stable ice sheet by snowfall fluctuations. To make predictions under less restrictive assumptions, improvements in models of ice flow are needed. Some of the challenges that this prediction problem poses are highlighted, and potentially useful approaches drawn from numerical weather prediction are discussed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arthern, Robert J. Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. |
author_facet |
Arthern, Robert J. Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. |
author_sort |
Arthern, Robert J. |
title |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_short |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_full |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_fullStr |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
title_sort |
determining the contribution of antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods |
publisher |
Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8/ https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Arthern, Robert J. orcid:0000-0002-3762-8219 Hindmarsh, Richard C.A. orcid:0000-0003-1633-2416 . 2006 Determining the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise using data assimilation methods. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 364 (1844). 1841-1865. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 <https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1801 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
364 |
container_issue |
1844 |
container_start_page |
1841 |
op_container_end_page |
1865 |
_version_ |
1801383746289532928 |