West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm
It is now almost 30 years since John Mercer (1978) first presented the idea that climate change could eventually cause a rapid deglaciation, or “collapse”, of a large part of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), raising world sea levels by 5 metres and causing untold economic and social impacts. Thi...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:769 2024-06-09T07:38:18+00:00 West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm Vaughan, David G. 2008 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 en eng Springer https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf Vaughan, David G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2008 West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm. Climatic Change, 91 (1-2). 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3> Glaciology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2008 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 2024-05-15T08:39:04Z It is now almost 30 years since John Mercer (1978) first presented the idea that climate change could eventually cause a rapid deglaciation, or “collapse”, of a large part of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), raising world sea levels by 5 metres and causing untold economic and social impacts. This idea, apparently simple and scientifically plausible, created a vision of the future, sufficiently alarming that it became a paradigm for a generation of researchers and provided an icon for the green movement. Through the 1990s, however, a lack of observational evidence for ongoing retreat in WAIS and improved understanding of the complex dynamics of ice streams meant that estimates of likelihood of collapse seemed to be diminishing. In the last few years, however, satellite studies over the apparently inaccessible Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have shown clear evidence of ice sheet retreat showing all the features that might have been predicted for emergent collapse. These studies are re-invigorating the paradigm, albeit in a modified form, and debate about the future stability of WAIS. Since much of WAIS appears to be stable, it may, no longer be reasonable to suggest there is an imminent threat of a 5-m rise in sea level resulting from complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but there is strong evidence that the Amundsen Sea embayment is changing rapidly. This area alone, contains the potential to raise sea level by around ~1.5 m, but more importantly it seems likely that it could, alter rapidly enough, to make a significant addition to the rate of sea-level rise over coming two centuries. Furthermore, a plausible connection between contemporary climate change and the fate of the ice sheet appears to be developing. The return of the paradigm presents a dilemma for policy-makers, and establishes a renewed set of priorities for the glaciological community. In particular, we must establish whether the hypothesized instability in WAIS is real, or simply an oversimplification resulting from ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic West Antarctica Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Mercer ENVELOPE(65.647,65.647,-70.227,-70.227) Climatic Change 91 1-2 65 79 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
Glaciology Vaughan, David G. West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
topic_facet |
Glaciology |
description |
It is now almost 30 years since John Mercer (1978) first presented the idea that climate change could eventually cause a rapid deglaciation, or “collapse”, of a large part of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), raising world sea levels by 5 metres and causing untold economic and social impacts. This idea, apparently simple and scientifically plausible, created a vision of the future, sufficiently alarming that it became a paradigm for a generation of researchers and provided an icon for the green movement. Through the 1990s, however, a lack of observational evidence for ongoing retreat in WAIS and improved understanding of the complex dynamics of ice streams meant that estimates of likelihood of collapse seemed to be diminishing. In the last few years, however, satellite studies over the apparently inaccessible Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have shown clear evidence of ice sheet retreat showing all the features that might have been predicted for emergent collapse. These studies are re-invigorating the paradigm, albeit in a modified form, and debate about the future stability of WAIS. Since much of WAIS appears to be stable, it may, no longer be reasonable to suggest there is an imminent threat of a 5-m rise in sea level resulting from complete collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, but there is strong evidence that the Amundsen Sea embayment is changing rapidly. This area alone, contains the potential to raise sea level by around ~1.5 m, but more importantly it seems likely that it could, alter rapidly enough, to make a significant addition to the rate of sea-level rise over coming two centuries. Furthermore, a plausible connection between contemporary climate change and the fate of the ice sheet appears to be developing. The return of the paradigm presents a dilemma for policy-makers, and establishes a renewed set of priorities for the glaciological community. In particular, we must establish whether the hypothesized instability in WAIS is real, or simply an oversimplification resulting from ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vaughan, David G. |
author_facet |
Vaughan, David G. |
author_sort |
Vaughan, David G. |
title |
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
title_short |
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
title_full |
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
title_fullStr |
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
title_full_unstemmed |
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
title_sort |
west antarctic ice sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(65.647,65.647,-70.227,-70.227) |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctica Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Mercer |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctica Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Mercer |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/769/1/The_return_of_a_paradigm_16_-_nora.pdf Vaughan, David G. orcid:0000-0002-9065-0570 . 2008 West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse – the fall and rise of a paradigm. Climatic Change, 91 (1-2). 65-79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9448-3 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
91 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
65 |
op_container_end_page |
79 |
_version_ |
1801371489343111168 |