Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain
Quantifying and attributing the tendency of flood events to demonstrate clustering in time and space is crucial for flood risk assessments. We analyse the temporal (TC) and spatial coherence (SC) of floods in 554 catchments over Great Britain. TC was assessed using the Dispersion Index and the Conwa...
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Taylor & Francis
2024
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:537565 2024-09-15T18:23:24+00:00 Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain Formetta, Giuseppe Svensson, Cecilia Stewart, Elizabeth 2024 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537565/ https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 unknown Taylor & Francis Formetta, Giuseppe; Svensson, Cecilia orcid:0000-0001-9294-5826 Stewart, Elizabeth orcid:0000-0003-4246-6645 . 2024 Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (10). 1288-1300. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 <https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167> Hydrology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2024 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 2024-08-13T23:39:30Z Quantifying and attributing the tendency of flood events to demonstrate clustering in time and space is crucial for flood risk assessments. We analyse the temporal (TC) and spatial coherence (SC) of floods in 554 catchments over Great Britain. TC was assessed using the Dispersion Index and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson regression, with both methods applied from 1 to 5 years aggregation windows. SC was investigated using the flood susceptibility index which quantifies how susceptible a geographical area is to widespread flooding. Results for TC showed that: i) most of the UK peak floods are over dispersed and ii) a positive relationship exists between winter mean North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies and annual number of peak floods across western Britain. Results for SC showed that susceptibility to widespread floods is higher for the south-east parts of Britain and for the Clyde-Forth valleys and it increases with catchment permeability and with the influence of lakes/reservoirs. The findings of our analysis are relevant to the enhancement of existing methods of flood hazard estimation and, in turn, will lead to more realistic flood risk quantification. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Hydrological Sciences Journal 69 10 1288 1300 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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unknown |
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Hydrology |
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Hydrology Formetta, Giuseppe Svensson, Cecilia Stewart, Elizabeth Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
topic_facet |
Hydrology |
description |
Quantifying and attributing the tendency of flood events to demonstrate clustering in time and space is crucial for flood risk assessments. We analyse the temporal (TC) and spatial coherence (SC) of floods in 554 catchments over Great Britain. TC was assessed using the Dispersion Index and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson regression, with both methods applied from 1 to 5 years aggregation windows. SC was investigated using the flood susceptibility index which quantifies how susceptible a geographical area is to widespread flooding. Results for TC showed that: i) most of the UK peak floods are over dispersed and ii) a positive relationship exists between winter mean North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies and annual number of peak floods across western Britain. Results for SC showed that susceptibility to widespread floods is higher for the south-east parts of Britain and for the Clyde-Forth valleys and it increases with catchment permeability and with the influence of lakes/reservoirs. The findings of our analysis are relevant to the enhancement of existing methods of flood hazard estimation and, in turn, will lead to more realistic flood risk quantification. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Formetta, Giuseppe Svensson, Cecilia Stewart, Elizabeth |
author_facet |
Formetta, Giuseppe Svensson, Cecilia Stewart, Elizabeth |
author_sort |
Formetta, Giuseppe |
title |
Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in great britain |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537565/ https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Formetta, Giuseppe; Svensson, Cecilia orcid:0000-0001-9294-5826 Stewart, Elizabeth orcid:0000-0003-4246-6645 . 2024 Spatio-temporal clustering of extreme floods in Great Britain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69 (10). 1288-1300. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 <https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2367167 |
container_title |
Hydrological Sciences Journal |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1288 |
op_container_end_page |
1300 |
_version_ |
1810463613301817344 |