Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resour...
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European Geosciences Union
2024
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/1/N537214JA.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:537214 2024-04-28T08:31:32+00:00 Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines Chan, Wilson C.H. Arnell, Nigel W. Darch, Geoff Facer-Childs, Katie Shepherd, Theodore G. Tanguy, Maliko 2024-03 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/1/N537214JA.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 en eng European Geosciences Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/1/N537214JA.pdf Chan, Wilson C.H. orcid:0000-0003-4296-3203 Arnell, Nigel W.; Darch, Geoff; Facer-Childs, Katie orcid:0000-0003-1060-9103 Shepherd, Theodore G.; Tanguy, Maliko orcid:0000-0002-1516-6834 . 2024 Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines [in special issue: Drought, society, and ecosystems] Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24 (3). 1065-1078. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 <https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024> cc_by_4 Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2024 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 2024-04-09T23:33:54Z The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Anglian region in England are investigated using the ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 plausible winters across 25 ensemble members and 3 lead times. Four winter clusters are defined using the hindcast winters based on possible combinations of various atmospheric circulation indices (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; East Atlantic, EA, pattern; and El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Using the 2022 drought as a case study, we demonstrate how storylines representing alternative ways the event could have unfolded can be used to explore plausible worst-case scenarios over winter 2022/23 and beyond. The winter clusters span a range of temperature and rainfall response in the study region and represent circulation storylines that could have happened over winter 2022/23. River flow and groundwater level simulations with the large sample of plausible hindcast winters show that drier-than-average winters characterised by predominantly NAO−/EA− and NAO+/EA− circulation patterns could have resulted in the continuation of the drought with a high likelihood of below-normal to low river flows across all selected catchments and boreholes by spring and summer 2023. Catchments in Norfolk were particularly vulnerable to a dry summer in 2023 as river flows were not estimated to recover to normal levels even with wet winters characterised predominantly by NAO−/EA+ and NAO+/EA+ circulation patterns, due to insufficient rainfall to overcome previous dry conditions and the slow response nature of groundwater-dominated catchments. Through this analysis, we aim to demonstrate the added value of this approach to create drought storylines during an ongoing ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24 3 1065 1078 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology |
spellingShingle |
Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology Chan, Wilson C.H. Arnell, Nigel W. Darch, Geoff Facer-Childs, Katie Shepherd, Theodore G. Tanguy, Maliko Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
topic_facet |
Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology |
description |
The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Anglian region in England are investigated using the ECMWF SEAS5 hindcast dataset, which includes 2850 plausible winters across 25 ensemble members and 3 lead times. Four winter clusters are defined using the hindcast winters based on possible combinations of various atmospheric circulation indices (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; East Atlantic, EA, pattern; and El Niño–Southern Oscillation). Using the 2022 drought as a case study, we demonstrate how storylines representing alternative ways the event could have unfolded can be used to explore plausible worst-case scenarios over winter 2022/23 and beyond. The winter clusters span a range of temperature and rainfall response in the study region and represent circulation storylines that could have happened over winter 2022/23. River flow and groundwater level simulations with the large sample of plausible hindcast winters show that drier-than-average winters characterised by predominantly NAO−/EA− and NAO+/EA− circulation patterns could have resulted in the continuation of the drought with a high likelihood of below-normal to low river flows across all selected catchments and boreholes by spring and summer 2023. Catchments in Norfolk were particularly vulnerable to a dry summer in 2023 as river flows were not estimated to recover to normal levels even with wet winters characterised predominantly by NAO−/EA+ and NAO+/EA+ circulation patterns, due to insufficient rainfall to overcome previous dry conditions and the slow response nature of groundwater-dominated catchments. Through this analysis, we aim to demonstrate the added value of this approach to create drought storylines during an ongoing ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chan, Wilson C.H. Arnell, Nigel W. Darch, Geoff Facer-Childs, Katie Shepherd, Theodore G. Tanguy, Maliko |
author_facet |
Chan, Wilson C.H. Arnell, Nigel W. Darch, Geoff Facer-Childs, Katie Shepherd, Theodore G. Tanguy, Maliko |
author_sort |
Chan, Wilson C.H. |
title |
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
title_short |
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
title_full |
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
title_fullStr |
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
title_full_unstemmed |
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines |
title_sort |
added value of seasonal hindcasts to create uk hydrological drought storylines |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/1/N537214JA.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/537214/1/N537214JA.pdf Chan, Wilson C.H. orcid:0000-0003-4296-3203 Arnell, Nigel W.; Darch, Geoff; Facer-Childs, Katie orcid:0000-0003-1060-9103 Shepherd, Theodore G.; Tanguy, Maliko orcid:0000-0002-1516-6834 . 2024 Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines [in special issue: Drought, society, and ecosystems] Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24 (3). 1065-1078. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 <https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1065 |
op_container_end_page |
1078 |
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1797589022332157952 |