Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers
The autumn-winter seasonal temperature reduction (STR) of the surface North Atlantic Ocean is investigated with control and climate change simulations of a coupled model and an observation-based sea surface temperature (SST) data set. In the climate change simulation, an increase in the magnitude of...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
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2023
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/1/JGR%20Oceans%20-%202023%20-%20Grist%20-%20Observed%20and%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20North%20Atlantic%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Reduction%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:536338 2023-12-31T10:20:27+01:00 Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers Grist, Jeremy P. Josey, Simon A. Sinha, Bablu 2023-11-20 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/1/JGR%20Oceans%20-%202023%20-%20Grist%20-%20Observed%20and%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20North%20Atlantic%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Reduction%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/1/JGR%20Oceans%20-%202023%20-%20Grist%20-%20Observed%20and%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20North%20Atlantic%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Reduction%20and%20Their.pdf Grist, Jeremy P. orcid:0000-0003-1068-9211 Josey, Simon A. orcid:0000-0002-1683-8831 Sinha, Bablu. 2023 Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 128 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837> cc_by_4 Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 2023-12-01T00:03:07Z The autumn-winter seasonal temperature reduction (STR) of the surface North Atlantic Ocean is investigated with control and climate change simulations of a coupled model and an observation-based sea surface temperature (SST) data set. In the climate change simulation, an increase in the magnitude of the STR is found over much of the North Atlantic, and this change is particularly marked in sea-ice affected regions and the subpolar gyre. Similar results for the mid-high latitude North Atlantic are obtained in the observational analysis. In particular, both the observation and climate model based results show that the STR has increased in magnitude by up to 0.3°C per decade in the subpolar gyre over the period 1951–2020. Drivers for the stronger STR are explored with a focus on potential contributions from increases in either ocean heat loss or the sensitivity of SST to heat loss. Over a large part of the mid-high latitude North Atlantic surface heat loss is found to have weakened in recent decades and is therefore not responsible for the stronger STR (exceptions to this are the near-coastal areas where sea-ice loss is important). In contrast, analysis of daily sensible and latent heat flux data reveals that the sensitivity of SST to heat loss has increased indicating that this term has played a major role in the stronger STR. Areas of greater SST sensitivity (and greater STR) are associated with increased surface stratification brought about predominantly by warming of the northern ocean regions. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 128 11 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
The autumn-winter seasonal temperature reduction (STR) of the surface North Atlantic Ocean is investigated with control and climate change simulations of a coupled model and an observation-based sea surface temperature (SST) data set. In the climate change simulation, an increase in the magnitude of the STR is found over much of the North Atlantic, and this change is particularly marked in sea-ice affected regions and the subpolar gyre. Similar results for the mid-high latitude North Atlantic are obtained in the observational analysis. In particular, both the observation and climate model based results show that the STR has increased in magnitude by up to 0.3°C per decade in the subpolar gyre over the period 1951–2020. Drivers for the stronger STR are explored with a focus on potential contributions from increases in either ocean heat loss or the sensitivity of SST to heat loss. Over a large part of the mid-high latitude North Atlantic surface heat loss is found to have weakened in recent decades and is therefore not responsible for the stronger STR (exceptions to this are the near-coastal areas where sea-ice loss is important). In contrast, analysis of daily sensible and latent heat flux data reveals that the sensitivity of SST to heat loss has increased indicating that this term has played a major role in the stronger STR. Areas of greater SST sensitivity (and greater STR) are associated with increased surface stratification brought about predominantly by warming of the northern ocean regions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Grist, Jeremy P. Josey, Simon A. Sinha, Bablu |
spellingShingle |
Grist, Jeremy P. Josey, Simon A. Sinha, Bablu Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
author_facet |
Grist, Jeremy P. Josey, Simon A. Sinha, Bablu |
author_sort |
Grist, Jeremy P. |
title |
Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
title_short |
Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
title_full |
Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
title_fullStr |
Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
title_sort |
observed and projected changes in north atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/1/JGR%20Oceans%20-%202023%20-%20Grist%20-%20Observed%20and%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20North%20Atlantic%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Reduction%20and%20Their.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 |
genre |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536338/1/JGR%20Oceans%20-%202023%20-%20Grist%20-%20Observed%20and%20Projected%20Changes%20in%20North%20Atlantic%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Reduction%20and%20Their.pdf Grist, Jeremy P. orcid:0000-0003-1068-9211 Josey, Simon A. orcid:0000-0002-1683-8831 Sinha, Bablu. 2023 Observed and projected changes in North Atlantic seasonal temperature reduction and their drivers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 128 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019837 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1786830815088345088 |