Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting
Seismic shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low-level deformation of fluid-saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large e...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:5346 2024-06-09T07:47:05+00:00 Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting Gao, Yuan Crampin, Stuart 2008 http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/5346/ http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118535585/home unknown Wiley-Blackwell Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart. 2008 Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting. Terra Nova, 20 (6). 440-448. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x> Earth Sciences Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2008 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x 2024-05-15T08:49:44Z Seismic shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low-level deformation of fluid-saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress-forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress-forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time-delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time-delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress-forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled-source cross-hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress-monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress-forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Terra Nova 20 6 440 448 |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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unknown |
topic |
Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth Sciences Gao, Yuan Crampin, Stuart Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
topic_facet |
Earth Sciences |
description |
Seismic shear-wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low-level deformation of fluid-saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress-forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress-forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time-delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time-delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress-forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled-source cross-hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress-monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress-forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gao, Yuan Crampin, Stuart |
author_facet |
Gao, Yuan Crampin, Stuart |
author_sort |
Gao, Yuan |
title |
Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
title_short |
Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
title_full |
Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
title_sort |
shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/5346/ http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118535585/home |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart. 2008 Shear-wave splitting and earthquake forecasting. Terra Nova, 20 (6). 440-448. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.2008.00836.x |
container_title |
Terra Nova |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
440 |
op_container_end_page |
448 |
_version_ |
1801377766306742272 |