Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter
This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union
2023
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Marcheggiani%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Eddy%E2%80%90Driven%20Jet%20in%20Winter.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102071 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:534402 2023-06-11T04:14:16+02:00 Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter Marcheggiani, Andrea Robson, Jon Monerie, Paul-Arthur Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Smith, Doug 2023-04-28 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Marcheggiani%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Eddy%E2%80%90Driven%20Jet%20in%20Winter.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102071 en eng American Geophysical Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Marcheggiani%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Eddy%E2%80%90Driven%20Jet%20in%20Winter.pdf Marcheggiani, Andrea; Robson, Jon; Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Smith, Doug. 2023 Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8), e2022GL102071. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071> cc_by_4 Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071 2023-05-04T23:02:43Z This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Geophysical Research Letters 50 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marcheggiani, Andrea Robson, Jon Monerie, Paul-Arthur Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Smith, Doug |
spellingShingle |
Marcheggiani, Andrea Robson, Jon Monerie, Paul-Arthur Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Smith, Doug Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
author_facet |
Marcheggiani, Andrea Robson, Jon Monerie, Paul-Arthur Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Smith, Doug |
author_sort |
Marcheggiani, Andrea |
title |
Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
title_short |
Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
title_full |
Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
title_fullStr |
Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of the north atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Marcheggiani%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Eddy%E2%80%90Driven%20Jet%20in%20Winter.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL102071 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534402/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Marcheggiani%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20the%20North%20Atlantic%20Eddy%E2%80%90Driven%20Jet%20in%20Winter.pdf Marcheggiani, Andrea; Robson, Jon; Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Bracegirdle, Thomas J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 Smith, Doug. 2023 Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy-Driven Jet in Winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8), e2022GL102071. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102071 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
8 |
_version_ |
1768392172663472128 |