Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century
Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid oc...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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2023
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:534263 2023-12-24T10:08:05+01:00 Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century Naughten, Kaitlin A. Holland, Paul R. De Rydt, Jan 2023-10-23 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/1/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x en eng Nature Research https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/1/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf Naughten, Kaitlin A. orcid:0000-0001-9475-9162 Holland, Paul R. orcid:0000-0001-8370-289X De Rydt, Jan. 2023 Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 20, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x> cc_by_4 Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x 2023-11-24T00:03:12Z Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Nature Climate Change 13 11 1222 1228 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. Holland, Paul R. De Rydt, Jan |
spellingShingle |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. Holland, Paul R. De Rydt, Jan Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
author_facet |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. Holland, Paul R. De Rydt, Jan |
author_sort |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. |
title |
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
title_short |
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
title_full |
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
title_fullStr |
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
title_sort |
unavoidable future increase in west antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/1/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/534263/1/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf Naughten, Kaitlin A. orcid:0000-0001-9475-9162 Holland, Paul R. orcid:0000-0001-8370-289X De Rydt, Jan. 2023 Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change. 20, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
1222 |
op_container_end_page |
1228 |
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1786174045916495872 |