Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6
The strong multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic (NA) winter atmospheric circulation is poorly understood and appears too weak in climate models. Recent research has shown peak atmospheric multi-decadal variability over the NA in late winter, particularly March, linked to Atlantic multi-decada...
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American Geophysical Union
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Bracegirdle%20-%20Early%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90Late%20Winter%2020th%20Century%20North%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL098212 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:532678 2023-05-15T17:29:28+02:00 Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 Bracegirdle, T.J. 2022-06-16 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Bracegirdle%20-%20Early%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90Late%20Winter%2020th%20Century%20North%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL098212 en eng American Geophysical Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Bracegirdle%20-%20Early%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90Late%20Winter%2020th%20Century%20North%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal.pdf Bracegirdle, T.J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 . 2022 Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11), e2022GL098212. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212 2023-02-04T19:53:18Z The strong multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic (NA) winter atmospheric circulation is poorly understood and appears too weak in climate models. Recent research has shown peak atmospheric multi-decadal variability over the NA in late winter, particularly March, linked to Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) of the ocean. Here a range of NA atmospheric circulation indices are assessed to provide a comprehensive picture of early-to-late winter low-frequency variability and its representation in the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)). As found for CMIP5, CMIP6 models exhibit too-weak multi-decadal NA atmospheric variability compared to reanalysis data over the period 1862-2005. Consistent with previous research, the eastern part of the NA westerly jet (U700NA) exhibits peak low-frequency variability in March. However, for NA-wide jet speed and the NAO, low-frequency variability and model-reanalysis discrepancies are strongest in January and February, associated with too-weak NA ocean-atmosphere linkages. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Geophysical Research Letters 49 11 |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
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ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
The strong multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic (NA) winter atmospheric circulation is poorly understood and appears too weak in climate models. Recent research has shown peak atmospheric multi-decadal variability over the NA in late winter, particularly March, linked to Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) of the ocean. Here a range of NA atmospheric circulation indices are assessed to provide a comprehensive picture of early-to-late winter low-frequency variability and its representation in the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)). As found for CMIP5, CMIP6 models exhibit too-weak multi-decadal NA atmospheric variability compared to reanalysis data over the period 1862-2005. Consistent with previous research, the eastern part of the NA westerly jet (U700NA) exhibits peak low-frequency variability in March. However, for NA-wide jet speed and the NAO, low-frequency variability and model-reanalysis discrepancies are strongest in January and February, associated with too-weak NA ocean-atmosphere linkages. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bracegirdle, T.J. |
spellingShingle |
Bracegirdle, T.J. Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
author_facet |
Bracegirdle, T.J. |
author_sort |
Bracegirdle, T.J. |
title |
Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
title_short |
Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
title_full |
Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6 |
title_sort |
early‐to-late winter 20th century north atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, cmip5 and cmip6 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Bracegirdle%20-%20Early%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90Late%20Winter%2020th%20Century%20North%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal.pdf https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL098212 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Bracegirdle%20-%20Early%E2%80%90to%E2%80%90Late%20Winter%2020th%20Century%20North%20Atlantic%20Multidecadal.pdf Bracegirdle, T.J. orcid:0000-0002-8868-4739 . 2022 Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11), e2022GL098212. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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49 |
container_issue |
11 |
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1766123601647370240 |