Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis
Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previo...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:532341 2023-05-15T16:26:28+02:00 Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis Hanna, Edward Cropper, Thomas E. Hall, Richard J. Cornes, Richard Barriendos, Mariano 2022-03-08 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/1/atmosphere-13-00436-v3.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/1/atmosphere-13-00436-v3.pdf Hanna, Edward; Cropper, Thomas E. orcid:0000-0002-3696-7905 Hall, Richard J.; Cornes, Richard orcid:0000-0002-7688-4485 Barriendos, Mariano. 2022 Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis. Atmosphere, 13 (3), 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 <https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 2023-02-04T19:53:07Z Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previously available instrumental-/reanalysis-based Azores–Iceland and principal component-based NAO indices, and allows us to evaluate the potential effect of natural climate perturbations, especially the 1809 and 1815 major volcanic eruptions and ~1790s–1830 Dalton solar minimum, on North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. We find that winters 1809/10 and 1816/17 mark positive NAO peaks, relative to several years before and afterwards, which is in accordance with the theory of volcanic forcing of climate. However, there is little evidence of a summer NAO volcanic signature. Overall, based on the significantly longer new reanalysis time series, the new series presented here corroborate and extend our previous results of: (1) a significantly more variable year-to-year NAO with a recent exceptional clustering of extreme events since 2000 for winter; (2) a significant increasing trend in blocking over Greenland in summer. These trends have major repercussions for the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather events over northwest Europe and for the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming, especially if they continue as an integral part of anthropogenic climate change Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Greenland Atmosphere 13 3 436 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Based on newly-available meteorological reanalysis, we compile and present extended seasonal series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Greenland Blocking indices spanning 1800–2020, which we analyse for evidence of significant trends. This represents a major backward extension of the previously available instrumental-/reanalysis-based Azores–Iceland and principal component-based NAO indices, and allows us to evaluate the potential effect of natural climate perturbations, especially the 1809 and 1815 major volcanic eruptions and ~1790s–1830 Dalton solar minimum, on North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. We find that winters 1809/10 and 1816/17 mark positive NAO peaks, relative to several years before and afterwards, which is in accordance with the theory of volcanic forcing of climate. However, there is little evidence of a summer NAO volcanic signature. Overall, based on the significantly longer new reanalysis time series, the new series presented here corroborate and extend our previous results of: (1) a significantly more variable year-to-year NAO with a recent exceptional clustering of extreme events since 2000 for winter; (2) a significant increasing trend in blocking over Greenland in summer. These trends have major repercussions for the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather events over northwest Europe and for the sensitivity and response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming, especially if they continue as an integral part of anthropogenic climate change |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hanna, Edward Cropper, Thomas E. Hall, Richard J. Cornes, Richard Barriendos, Mariano |
spellingShingle |
Hanna, Edward Cropper, Thomas E. Hall, Richard J. Cornes, Richard Barriendos, Mariano Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
author_facet |
Hanna, Edward Cropper, Thomas E. Hall, Richard J. Cornes, Richard Barriendos, Mariano |
author_sort |
Hanna, Edward |
title |
Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
title_short |
Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
title_full |
Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
title_fullStr |
Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
title_sort |
extended north atlantic oscillation and greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/1/atmosphere-13-00436-v3.pdf https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532341/1/atmosphere-13-00436-v3.pdf Hanna, Edward; Cropper, Thomas E. orcid:0000-0002-3696-7905 Hall, Richard J.; Cornes, Richard orcid:0000-0002-7688-4485 Barriendos, Mariano. 2022 Extended north Atlantic oscillation and Greenland blocking indices 1800–2020 from new meteorological reanalysis. Atmosphere, 13 (3), 436. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 <https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030436 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
436 |
_version_ |
1766015383467196416 |