Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming
The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:531333 2023-05-15T17:58:02+02:00 Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming Thompson, J.R. Gosling, S.N. Zaherpour, J. Laize, C.L.R. 2021-11 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/1/N531333JA.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 en eng Wiley https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/1/N531333JA.pdf Thompson, J.R.; Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.; Laize, C.L.R. orcid:0000-0002-7560-7769 . 2021 Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming. Earth's Future, 9 (11), e2021EF002048. 20, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048> cc_by_4 CC-BY Ecology and Environment Hydrology Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 2023-02-04T19:52:43Z The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre-industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate-driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline-scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global-scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium-high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Earth's Future 9 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology and Environment Hydrology |
spellingShingle |
Ecology and Environment Hydrology Thompson, J.R. Gosling, S.N. Zaherpour, J. Laize, C.L.R. Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
topic_facet |
Ecology and Environment Hydrology |
description |
The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre-industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate-driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline-scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global-scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium-high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thompson, J.R. Gosling, S.N. Zaherpour, J. Laize, C.L.R. |
author_facet |
Thompson, J.R. Gosling, S.N. Zaherpour, J. Laize, C.L.R. |
author_sort |
Thompson, J.R. |
title |
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
title_short |
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
title_full |
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
title_fullStr |
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
title_sort |
increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/1/N531333JA.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333/1/N531333JA.pdf Thompson, J.R.; Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.; Laize, C.L.R. orcid:0000-0002-7560-7769 . 2021 Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming. Earth's Future, 9 (11), e2021EF002048. 20, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002048 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
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