Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019
Arctic surface temperature has increased at approximately twice the global rate over the past few decades and is also projected to warm most in the 21st century. However, the mechanism of Arctic vegetation response to this warming remains largely uncertain. Here, we analyse variations in the seasona...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/1/Shabanov_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_084009.pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:530888 2023-05-15T14:26:54+02:00 Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 Shabanov, N.V. Marshall, G.J. Rees, W.G. Bartalev, S.A. Tutubalina, O.V. Golubeva, E.I. 2021-07-22 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/1/Shabanov_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_084009.pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 en eng IOP Publishing Ltd https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/1/Shabanov_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_084009.pdf Shabanov, N.V.; Marshall, G.J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Rees, W.G.; Bartalev, S.A.; Tutubalina, O.V.; Golubeva, E.I. 2021 Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (8), 084009. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 2023-02-04T19:52:28Z Arctic surface temperature has increased at approximately twice the global rate over the past few decades and is also projected to warm most in the 21st century. However, the mechanism of Arctic vegetation response to this warming remains largely uncertain. Here, we analyse variations in the seasonal profiles of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Leaf Area Index (LAI) and ERA-interim cumulative near-Surface Air Temperature (SATΣ) over the northern Russia, north of 60◦ N for 2000-2019. We find that commonly used broad temporal interval (seasonal) trends cannot fully represent complex interannual variations of the LAI profile over the growing season. A sequence of narrow temporal interval (weekly) LAI trends form an inverted S-shape over the course of the growing season with enhanced green-up and senescence, but balanced during the growing season's peak. Spatial patterns of weekly LAI trends match with those of weekly SATΣ trends during the green-up, while the drivers of the browning trends during senescence remain unclear. Geographically the area with the statistically significant temperature-driven enhanced green-up is restricted by a large patch carrying significant positive SATΣ trends, which includes North Siberian Lowland, Taimyr, Yamal and adjacent territories. The strength, duration and timing of the changes depend on vegetation type: enhanced green-up is most pronounced in tundra, while enhanced senescence is pronounced in forests. Continued release of the climatic constraints will likely increase the capacity both of the environment (i.e. permafrost thawing) and vegetation (i.e. appearance of more productive woody species), and transform LAI seasonal shifts to change of LAI seasonal amplitude. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic permafrost Taimyr Tundra Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Browning ENVELOPE(164.050,164.050,-74.617,-74.617) Environmental Research Letters 16 8 084009 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic surface temperature has increased at approximately twice the global rate over the past few decades and is also projected to warm most in the 21st century. However, the mechanism of Arctic vegetation response to this warming remains largely uncertain. Here, we analyse variations in the seasonal profiles of MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Leaf Area Index (LAI) and ERA-interim cumulative near-Surface Air Temperature (SATΣ) over the northern Russia, north of 60◦ N for 2000-2019. We find that commonly used broad temporal interval (seasonal) trends cannot fully represent complex interannual variations of the LAI profile over the growing season. A sequence of narrow temporal interval (weekly) LAI trends form an inverted S-shape over the course of the growing season with enhanced green-up and senescence, but balanced during the growing season's peak. Spatial patterns of weekly LAI trends match with those of weekly SATΣ trends during the green-up, while the drivers of the browning trends during senescence remain unclear. Geographically the area with the statistically significant temperature-driven enhanced green-up is restricted by a large patch carrying significant positive SATΣ trends, which includes North Siberian Lowland, Taimyr, Yamal and adjacent territories. The strength, duration and timing of the changes depend on vegetation type: enhanced green-up is most pronounced in tundra, while enhanced senescence is pronounced in forests. Continued release of the climatic constraints will likely increase the capacity both of the environment (i.e. permafrost thawing) and vegetation (i.e. appearance of more productive woody species), and transform LAI seasonal shifts to change of LAI seasonal amplitude. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shabanov, N.V. Marshall, G.J. Rees, W.G. Bartalev, S.A. Tutubalina, O.V. Golubeva, E.I. |
spellingShingle |
Shabanov, N.V. Marshall, G.J. Rees, W.G. Bartalev, S.A. Tutubalina, O.V. Golubeva, E.I. Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
author_facet |
Shabanov, N.V. Marshall, G.J. Rees, W.G. Bartalev, S.A. Tutubalina, O.V. Golubeva, E.I. |
author_sort |
Shabanov, N.V. |
title |
Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
title_short |
Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
title_full |
Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
title_fullStr |
Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019 |
title_sort |
climate-driven phenological changes in the russian arctic derived from modis lai time series 2000-2019 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing Ltd |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/1/Shabanov_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_084009.pdf https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(164.050,164.050,-74.617,-74.617) |
geographic |
Arctic Browning |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Browning |
genre |
Arctic Arctic permafrost Taimyr Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic permafrost Taimyr Tundra |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530888/1/Shabanov_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_084009.pdf Shabanov, N.V.; Marshall, G.J. orcid:0000-0001-8887-7314 Rees, W.G.; Bartalev, S.A.; Tutubalina, O.V.; Golubeva, E.I. 2021 Climate-driven phenological changes in the Russian Arctic derived from MODIS LAI time series 2000-2019. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (8), 084009. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be2 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084009 |
_version_ |
1766300383982911488 |