Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle a...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Wiley
2021
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/1/N529305PP.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:529305 2023-05-15T13:16:17+02:00 Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean Clairbaux, Manon Cheung, William W.L. Mathewson, Paul Porter, Warren Courbin, Nicolas Fort, Jérôme Strøm, Hallvard Moe, Børge Fauchald, Per Descamps, Sebastien Helgason, Hálfdán Bråthen, Vegard S. Merkel, Benjamin Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho Bringsvor, Ingar S. Chastel, Olivier Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe Danielsen, Jóhannis Daunt, Francis Dehnhard, Nina Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Ezhov, Alexeï Gavrilo, Maria Krasnov, Yuri Langset, Magdalene Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon Newell, Mark Olsen, Bergur Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin Systad, Geir Þórarinsson, Þorkell L. Baran, Mark Diamond, Tony Fayet, Annette L. Fitzsimmons, Michelle G. Frederiksen, Morten Gilchrist, Grant H. Guilford, Tim Huffeldt, Nicholas P. Jessopp, Mark Johansen, Kasper L. Kouwenberg, Amy L. Linnebjerg, Jannie F. McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura Mallory, Mark Merkel, Flemming R. Montevecchi, William Mosbech, Anders Petersen, Aevar Grémillet, David 2021-04 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/1/N529305PP.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 en eng Wiley https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/1/N529305PP.pdf Clairbaux, Manon; Cheung, William W.L.; Mathewson, Paul; Porter, Warren; Courbin, Nicolas; Fort, Jérôme; Strøm, Hallvard; Moe, Børge; Fauchald, Per; Descamps, Sebastien; Helgason, Hálfdán; Bråthen, Vegard S.; Merkel, Benjamin; Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho; Bringsvor, Ingar S.; Chastel, Olivier; Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe; Danielsen, Jóhannis; Daunt, Francis; Dehnhard, Nina; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Ezhov, Alexeï; Gavrilo, Maria; Krasnov, Yuri; Langset, Magdalene; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Newell, Mark; Olsen, Bergur; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Systad, Geir; Þórarinsson, Þorkell L.; Baran, Mark; Diamond, Tony; Fayet, Annette L.; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G.; Frederiksen, Morten; Gilchrist, Grant H.; Guilford, Tim; Huffeldt, Nicholas P.; Jessopp, Mark; Johansen, Kasper L.; Kouwenberg, Amy L.; Linnebjerg, Jannie F.; McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura; Mallory, Mark; Merkel, Flemming R.; Montevecchi, William; Mosbech, Anders; Petersen, Aevar; Grémillet, David. 2021 Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology, 27 (7). 1457-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497> Ecology and Environment Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 2023-02-04T19:51:34Z We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine‐protected areas in a changing ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Global Change Biology 27 7 1457 1469 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology and Environment |
spellingShingle |
Ecology and Environment Clairbaux, Manon Cheung, William W.L. Mathewson, Paul Porter, Warren Courbin, Nicolas Fort, Jérôme Strøm, Hallvard Moe, Børge Fauchald, Per Descamps, Sebastien Helgason, Hálfdán Bråthen, Vegard S. Merkel, Benjamin Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho Bringsvor, Ingar S. Chastel, Olivier Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe Danielsen, Jóhannis Daunt, Francis Dehnhard, Nina Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Ezhov, Alexeï Gavrilo, Maria Krasnov, Yuri Langset, Magdalene Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon Newell, Mark Olsen, Bergur Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin Systad, Geir Þórarinsson, Þorkell L. Baran, Mark Diamond, Tony Fayet, Annette L. Fitzsimmons, Michelle G. Frederiksen, Morten Gilchrist, Grant H. Guilford, Tim Huffeldt, Nicholas P. Jessopp, Mark Johansen, Kasper L. Kouwenberg, Amy L. Linnebjerg, Jannie F. McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura Mallory, Mark Merkel, Flemming R. Montevecchi, William Mosbech, Anders Petersen, Aevar Grémillet, David Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
Ecology and Environment |
description |
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine‐protected areas in a changing ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Clairbaux, Manon Cheung, William W.L. Mathewson, Paul Porter, Warren Courbin, Nicolas Fort, Jérôme Strøm, Hallvard Moe, Børge Fauchald, Per Descamps, Sebastien Helgason, Hálfdán Bråthen, Vegard S. Merkel, Benjamin Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho Bringsvor, Ingar S. Chastel, Olivier Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe Danielsen, Jóhannis Daunt, Francis Dehnhard, Nina Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Ezhov, Alexeï Gavrilo, Maria Krasnov, Yuri Langset, Magdalene Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon Newell, Mark Olsen, Bergur Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin Systad, Geir Þórarinsson, Þorkell L. Baran, Mark Diamond, Tony Fayet, Annette L. Fitzsimmons, Michelle G. Frederiksen, Morten Gilchrist, Grant H. Guilford, Tim Huffeldt, Nicholas P. Jessopp, Mark Johansen, Kasper L. Kouwenberg, Amy L. Linnebjerg, Jannie F. McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura Mallory, Mark Merkel, Flemming R. Montevecchi, William Mosbech, Anders Petersen, Aevar Grémillet, David |
author_facet |
Clairbaux, Manon Cheung, William W.L. Mathewson, Paul Porter, Warren Courbin, Nicolas Fort, Jérôme Strøm, Hallvard Moe, Børge Fauchald, Per Descamps, Sebastien Helgason, Hálfdán Bråthen, Vegard S. Merkel, Benjamin Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho Bringsvor, Ingar S. Chastel, Olivier Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe Danielsen, Jóhannis Daunt, Francis Dehnhard, Nina Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Ezhov, Alexeï Gavrilo, Maria Krasnov, Yuri Langset, Magdalene Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon Newell, Mark Olsen, Bergur Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin Systad, Geir Þórarinsson, Þorkell L. Baran, Mark Diamond, Tony Fayet, Annette L. Fitzsimmons, Michelle G. Frederiksen, Morten Gilchrist, Grant H. Guilford, Tim Huffeldt, Nicholas P. Jessopp, Mark Johansen, Kasper L. Kouwenberg, Amy L. Linnebjerg, Jannie F. McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura Mallory, Mark Merkel, Flemming R. Montevecchi, William Mosbech, Anders Petersen, Aevar Grémillet, David |
author_sort |
Clairbaux, Manon |
title |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
meeting paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the north atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/1/N529305PP.pdf https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 |
genre |
Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
genre_facet |
Alle alle fratercula Fratercula arctica North Atlantic rissa tridactyla Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/529305/1/N529305PP.pdf Clairbaux, Manon; Cheung, William W.L.; Mathewson, Paul; Porter, Warren; Courbin, Nicolas; Fort, Jérôme; Strøm, Hallvard; Moe, Børge; Fauchald, Per; Descamps, Sebastien; Helgason, Hálfdán; Bråthen, Vegard S.; Merkel, Benjamin; Anker‐Nilssen, Tycho; Bringsvor, Ingar S.; Chastel, Olivier; Christensen‐Dalsgaard, Signe; Danielsen, Jóhannis; Daunt, Francis; Dehnhard, Nina; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Ezhov, Alexeï; Gavrilo, Maria; Krasnov, Yuri; Langset, Magdalene; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Newell, Mark; Olsen, Bergur; Reiertsen, Tone Kirstin; Systad, Geir; Þórarinsson, Þorkell L.; Baran, Mark; Diamond, Tony; Fayet, Annette L.; Fitzsimmons, Michelle G.; Frederiksen, Morten; Gilchrist, Grant H.; Guilford, Tim; Huffeldt, Nicholas P.; Jessopp, Mark; Johansen, Kasper L.; Kouwenberg, Amy L.; Linnebjerg, Jannie F.; McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura; Mallory, Mark; Merkel, Flemming R.; Montevecchi, William; Mosbech, Anders; Petersen, Aevar; Grémillet, David. 2021 Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology, 27 (7). 1457-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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27 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1457 |
op_container_end_page |
1469 |
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1766273342326702080 |