Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change
A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how...
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:528343 2023-05-15T13:41:45+02:00 Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. 2021-03-31 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/1/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0 en eng Nature Research https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/1/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf Naughten, Kaitlin A. orcid:0000-0001-9475-9162 De Rydt, Jan; Rosier, Sebastian H.R.; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R. orcid:0000-0001-8370-289X Ridley, Jeff K. 2021 Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change. Nature Communications, 12, 1991. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 2023-02-04T19:50:59Z A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf ENVELOPE(-61.000,-61.000,-78.500,-78.500) Nature Communications 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. |
spellingShingle |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
author_facet |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. De Rydt, Jan Rosier, Sebastian H.R. Jenkins, Adrian Holland, Paul R. Ridley, Jeff K. |
author_sort |
Naughten, Kaitlin A. |
title |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_short |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_full |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
title_sort |
two-timescale response of a large antarctic ice shelf to climate change |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/1/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22259-0 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-61.000,-61.000,-78.500,-78.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ronne Ice Shelf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ronne Ice Shelf |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528343/1/s41467-021-22259-0.pdf Naughten, Kaitlin A. orcid:0000-0001-9475-9162 De Rydt, Jan; Rosier, Sebastian H.R.; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R. orcid:0000-0001-8370-289X Ridley, Jeff K. 2021 Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change. Nature Communications, 12, 1991. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766157001371418624 |