Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations
A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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2020
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/1/2019GL085397.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:527067 2023-05-15T14:27:06+02:00 Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations Liang, Yu‐Chiao Kwon, Young‐Oh Frankignoul, Claude Danabasoglu, Gokhan Yeager, Stephen Cherchi, Annalisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Peano, Daniele Suo, Lingling Tian, Tian 2020-01-16 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/1/2019GL085397.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/1/2019GL085397.pdf Liang, Yu‐Chiao; Kwon, Young‐Oh; Frankignoul, Claude; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Stephen; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gao, Yongqi; Gastineau, Guillaume; Ghosh, Rohit; Matei, Daniela; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Peano, Daniele; Suo, Lingling; Tian, Tian. 2020 Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 2023-02-04T19:50:16Z A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 47 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao Kwon, Young‐Oh Frankignoul, Claude Danabasoglu, Gokhan Yeager, Stephen Cherchi, Annalisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Peano, Daniele Suo, Lingling Tian, Tian |
spellingShingle |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao Kwon, Young‐Oh Frankignoul, Claude Danabasoglu, Gokhan Yeager, Stephen Cherchi, Annalisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Peano, Daniele Suo, Lingling Tian, Tian Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
author_facet |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao Kwon, Young‐Oh Frankignoul, Claude Danabasoglu, Gokhan Yeager, Stephen Cherchi, Annalisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Ghosh, Rohit Matei, Daniela Mecking, Jennifer V. Peano, Daniele Suo, Lingling Tian, Tian |
author_sort |
Liang, Yu‐Chiao |
title |
Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
title_short |
Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
title_full |
Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
title_fullStr |
Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
title_sort |
quantification of the arctic sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/1/2019GL085397.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527067/1/2019GL085397.pdf Liang, Yu‐Chiao; Kwon, Young‐Oh; Frankignoul, Claude; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Stephen; Cherchi, Annalisa; Gao, Yongqi; Gastineau, Guillaume; Ghosh, Rohit; Matei, Daniela; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Peano, Daniele; Suo, Lingling; Tian, Tian. 2020 Quantification of the Arctic Sea ice‐driven atmospheric circulation variability in coordinated large ensemble simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (1). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766300690758500352 |