Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximatio...
Published in: | Ecology and Evolution |
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/1/__filestore.soton.ac.uk_users_elc1_mydesktop_OA_Downloads_Sadykova_et_al-2020-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 |
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ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:526769 2023-05-15T15:44:58+02:00 Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 Sadykova, Dinara Scott, Beth E. De Dominicis, Michela Wakelin, Sarah L. Wolf, Judith Sadykov, Alexander 2020-01-29 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/1/__filestore.soton.ac.uk_users_elc1_mydesktop_OA_Downloads_Sadykova_et_al-2020-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 en eng https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/1/__filestore.soton.ac.uk_users_elc1_mydesktop_OA_Downloads_Sadykova_et_al-2020-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf Sadykova, Dinara; Scott, Beth E.; De Dominicis, Michela orcid:0000-0003-0544-7939 Wakelin, Sarah L. orcid:0000-0002-2081-2693 Wolf, Judith orcid:0000-0003-4129-8221 Sadykov, Alexander. 2020 Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050. Ecology and Evolution, 10 (2). 1069-1086. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 <https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2020 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 2023-02-04T19:50:09Z Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Ecology and Evolution 10 2 1069 1086 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sadykova, Dinara Scott, Beth E. De Dominicis, Michela Wakelin, Sarah L. Wolf, Judith Sadykov, Alexander |
spellingShingle |
Sadykova, Dinara Scott, Beth E. De Dominicis, Michela Wakelin, Sarah L. Wolf, Judith Sadykov, Alexander Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
author_facet |
Sadykova, Dinara Scott, Beth E. De Dominicis, Michela Wakelin, Sarah L. Wolf, Judith Sadykov, Alexander |
author_sort |
Sadykova, Dinara |
title |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_short |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_full |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_sort |
ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/1/__filestore.soton.ac.uk_users_elc1_mydesktop_OA_Downloads_Sadykova_et_al-2020-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Laplace |
genre |
Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal |
genre_facet |
Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526769/1/__filestore.soton.ac.uk_users_elc1_mydesktop_OA_Downloads_Sadykova_et_al-2020-Ecology_and_Evolution.pdf Sadykova, Dinara; Scott, Beth E.; De Dominicis, Michela orcid:0000-0003-0544-7939 Wakelin, Sarah L. orcid:0000-0002-2081-2693 Wolf, Judith orcid:0000-0003-4129-8221 Sadykov, Alexander. 2020 Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050. Ecology and Evolution, 10 (2). 1069-1086. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 <https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1069 |
op_container_end_page |
1086 |
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1766379332141318144 |