A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences
The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reco...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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European Geosciences Union
2021
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Online Access: | http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/1/cp-2019-165.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/ |
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Open Polar |
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Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftnerc |
language |
English |
description |
The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Mod-elling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78° N in the Atlantic and Nordic seas the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78° N there are some discrepancies between sea-ice re-constructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise C. Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Schroeder, David Stein, Ruediger Malmierca Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Chamberlain, Matthew A. Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'ishi, Ryouta Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Ziehn, Tilo |
spellingShingle |
Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise C. Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Schroeder, David Stein, Ruediger Malmierca Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Chamberlain, Matthew A. Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'ishi, Ryouta Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Ziehn, Tilo A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
author_facet |
Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise C. Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Schroeder, David Stein, Ruediger Malmierca Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Chamberlain, Matthew A. Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'ishi, Ryouta Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Ziehn, Tilo |
author_sort |
Kageyama, Masa |
title |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_short |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_fullStr |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_full_unstemmed |
A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences |
title_sort |
multi-model cmip6-pmip4 study of arctic sea ice at 127ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/1/cp-2019-165.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/ |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/1/cp-2019-165.pdf Kageyama, Masa; Sime, Louise C. orcid:0000-0002-9093-7926 Sicard, Marie; Guarino, Maria Vittoria orcid:0000-0002-7531-4560 de Vernal, Anne; Schroeder, David; Stein, Ruediger; Malmierca Vallet, Irene orcid:0000-0002-2871-9741 Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Bitz, Cecilia; Braconnot, Pascale; Brady, Esther; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Feltham, Danny; Guo, Chuncheng; Lohmann, Gerrit; Meissner, Katrin; Menviel, Laurie; Morozova, Polina; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; O'ishi, Ryouta; Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Stroeve, Julienne; Shi, Xiaoxu; Sun, Bo; Volodin, Evgeny; Yeung, Nicholas; Zhang, Qiong; Zhang, Zhongshi; Ziehn, Tilo. 2021 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences [in special issue: Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4)] Climate of the Past, 17 (1), 372021. 37-62. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 <https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
37 |
op_container_end_page |
62 |
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1766247745657503744 |
spelling |
ftnerc:oai:nora.nerc.ac.uk:526573 2023-05-15T13:11:31+02:00 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences Kageyama, Masa Sime, Louise C. Sicard, Marie Guarino, Maria Vittoria de Vernal, Anne Schroeder, David Stein, Ruediger Malmierca Vallet, Irene Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Bitz, Cecilia Braconnot, Pascale Brady, Esther Chamberlain, Matthew A. Feltham, Danny Guo, Chuncheng Lohmann, Gerrit Meissner, Katrin Menviel, Laurie Morozova, Polina Nisancioglu, Kerim H. Otto-Bliesner, Bette O'ishi, Ryouta Sherriff-Tadano, Sam Stroeve, Julienne Shi, Xiaoxu Sun, Bo Volodin, Evgeny Yeung, Nicholas Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Ziehn, Tilo 2021-01-11 text http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/ https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/1/cp-2019-165.pdf https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/37/2021/ en eng European Geosciences Union https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526573/1/cp-2019-165.pdf Kageyama, Masa; Sime, Louise C. orcid:0000-0002-9093-7926 Sicard, Marie; Guarino, Maria Vittoria orcid:0000-0002-7531-4560 de Vernal, Anne; Schroeder, David; Stein, Ruediger; Malmierca Vallet, Irene orcid:0000-0002-2871-9741 Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Bitz, Cecilia; Braconnot, Pascale; Brady, Esther; Chamberlain, Matthew A.; Feltham, Danny; Guo, Chuncheng; Lohmann, Gerrit; Meissner, Katrin; Menviel, Laurie; Morozova, Polina; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; O'ishi, Ryouta; Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Stroeve, Julienne; Shi, Xiaoxu; Sun, Bo; Volodin, Evgeny; Yeung, Nicholas; Zhang, Qiong; Zhang, Zhongshi; Ziehn, Tilo. 2021 A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences [in special issue: Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4)] Climate of the Past, 17 (1), 372021. 37-62. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 <https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021> cc_by_4 CC-BY Publication - Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftnerc https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021 2023-02-04T19:50:02Z The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Mod-elling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78° N in the Atlantic and Nordic seas the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78° N there are some discrepancies between sea-ice re-constructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. ... Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Nordic Seas North Atlantic Sea ice Natural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research Archive Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate of the Past 17 1 37 62 |